Author: Ivan

USDA Report Report was slightly negative to pre-report estimates on yield, while slightly friendly to corn on carryouts. World wheat and soybeans were also higher than expected on ending stocks.

NASS crop report out at 11:00 AM today. Grain futures turned softer overnight as further progress is being seen with discussions to extend the Ukraine Export corridor. Russia is seeking an exemption for a Russian bank to facilitate Russian grain/fertilizer trade, and negotiations are ongoing that this may occur with the supervisory bank. Concerns are…

Markets soften with lack of Turn around-Tuesday effect. Grain futures soften overnight after the USDA put out their baseline guesses for next year and multiple years forward, with corn next year at 92 Mil acres and soybeans at 87.5 Mil acres, both up from this past season’s plantings. Also, the weather continues to look for…

Markets recover overnight from Sunday opening losses. Equities, energies, metals, and commodities all opened lower/sharply lower Sunday night on China’s announcement of staying with its Covid policies, yet valuations recovered throughout the night. Rumors seem to abound that China is using it as propaganda to acquire raw materials that would otherwise be more expensive if…

Rumors of China loosening Covid restrictions sparks rallies. Grain futures moved higher overnight, as rumors out of China potentially reopening much sooner than anticipated created a flurry of buying, sending crude oil nearly $4.00 higher, pulling metals and the other host of commodities with it to the upside. This morning’s job data showed a build…

Risk-off across equities, metals, energies, and agriculture World stock, energy, metals, and commodity markets are all lower this morning on a sharply higher US dollar that has traded back to near 113.00. The Federal Reserve yesterday afternoon stayed with an aggressive stance on rate increases and did not give a hint that it would pause…

The Black Sea corridor is operational again. Good morning to another headline day, when at 5:00 a.m., the wheels came off the grain rally as Russia announced it would resume participation in the Black Sea export corridor. It’s reported that Russia’s Defense Ministry received a written guarantee from Ukraine stating the corridor would not be…

Spec trade: Sell short the January 15.00 call at the MKT, $0.22 last

Brazil roadblocks and Putin comments influence night trading. Grain futures were mixed overnight, with wheat and corn moving lower on comments from Pres. Putin that the grain corridor was “suspended, not canceled.” This created confusion which immediately brought about selling despite crop ratings for the winter wheat crop at 28% GD/EX, below the 40% estimate….

Spec trade: Buy 2 December micro-crude oil at 84.42 GTC with a 80.50 stop.