Soybeans recover back to 14.00 overnight on dire forecast.
Grain futures are higher this morning after yesterday’s algorithm trading painted fund close for row crops that followed wheat into the bell. The ongoing hot/dry Central US weather and Egypt announcing a tender on the close today for wheat shipment in October/November is helping recover values.
Tomorrow is the delivery process for the September grain contracts of the first notice day, and limited deliveries are expected in corn, soybeans, and products. It’s anticipated that Chicago's September wheat might experience 200-400 contracts of deliveries, while Kansas City could see deliveries of under 200 contracts.
Rumors continue that Turkish Pres. Erdogan and Pres. Putin will meet in Moscow on Monday. The Grain Corridor Deal is on the agenda, with many doubtful that Russia will accept any deal that does not and economic sanctions from Europe, including SWIFT banking connection for their Russian agricultural banks.
Farm Futures 2024 planting intention survey results showed US corn acres falling – 1.1% to 93.1 million, beans gaining +2.3% to 85.402 million, and all wheat acres increasing +5.8%, including 38.665 million of winter and 14.014 million of spring varieties.
The potential loss of US corn and soybean yield from late-season heat and dryness is becoming paramount. As the saying goes, “It is not how you start, it’s how you finish,” and the crop finish for corn and beans is very poor for large portions of the Midwest. Corn and wheat should be in a bottoming process, while wheat looks to extend recent strength. Yields below hundred 71 BPA on corn and below 49.5 BPA on soybeans are becoming more likely over the next two weeks.
The Central US forecast shows no indication of any meaningful rain throughout the Central US as a high-pressure ridge grips the region for another 10 days. The four-week period from August 15 forward will be one of the warmest and driest on record. Mild temperatures persist for another few days in the 70s and 80s before an amplified high-pressure Ridge progresses East and produces a new round of excessive heat Friday onward into September 8. High temperatures will range mostly in the 90s with a few lower 100s during that period. Daily records will likely be set. The Northern Lake states might get a few light showers late next week, but those amounts are less than .50” with less than 50% coverage.
It was a mixed-to-lower close yesterday for the cattle trade despite sharp gains in the stock market. As the beef market confirms a seasonal top, the packers are looking for a lower trade was, and next week’s slaughter schedule is reduced by a day. Meanwhile, feedlots are trying to hold out with lower show lists this week. Yesterday, choice box beef was down $2.68, while select was also lower by $2.41.
The cash feeder Index gained another $1.29 to a record $249.12. A year ago, the index was $68 lower at $181. The index picked up $31 then the record set in 2014. Seasonals are not particularly friendly now through September, which will likely create a choppy board with slow consumer demand.