Soybeans are set to close at new weekly highs.

This morning finds soybeans challenging early week highs, while the wheat market amounts small rebound with corn steady. The weather forecast looking forward has another 10-14 days of dry weather with heat returning after cooling. This weekend. The expiration of September grain options and the likely pre-weekend volatility occur today.

The Pro Farmer tour ended yesterday after finishing up in Iowa and Minnesota will yields are pegged below recent years. The Iowa corn yield is estimated at 182.8 BPA, down 1 bushel from last year and down from the three-year average of 184.1 BPA. Minnesota corn yield was forecasted at 181.3 BPA, which is 8 bushels lower than last year and six below the three-year average. Interesting is that Missouri, the state that has been hit the hardest by heat and dryness, was not in the tour this growing season. It appears the corn yield given the same regional issues as last year, will be below 173 BPA.

The Iowa soybean pod count was at 1, 190 in a square, up fractionally from recent years, while the Minnesota pod count was at 984, down 10.5% from last year and down 8% from the three-year average. The pod counts from the tour overall argue the soybean yield at or below 50 BPA presently with normal finishing weather. Unfortunately, normal finishing weather does not look to be in the cards. The soybean seeds side is 30% of the yield calculation, which is determined by the weather conditions for the middle of August through September 10. The ongoing forecasted dry weather with more bouts of hot temps suggests the soybean yield could fall below last year which would have the carryout tightening up well below 200 Mil Bu.

Canada issued a statement that they will join the US in the settlement proceedings against Mexico’s ban on GMO corn imports. Yesterday, Chinese corn was at $9.77/bu, and beans over $19.00/bu. Wheat in India is $8.44/bu. Global grain trade is moving at very healthy levels.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange announced that Argentine wheat production will decline without an immediate increase in rainfall across the pampas. Argentina remains in a three-or drought that looks to impact the wheat without meaningful September rainfall adversely. Argentine farmers are expected to start seeding corn in early September, but unfortunately, weather forecasts offer limited precipitation through September 7.

Monday’s ratings on corn and soybean conditions will decline by 2-5%.

The upcoming weather features an amplified high-pressure Ridge that produces another day of extreme heat across the Plains/Midwest/Delta. High temps again we record or near record high with readings ranging from the 90s to lower 100s. Moderation in Midwest temperatures will occur over the weekend with highs retreating to near to slightly above normal in the 80s generally with a few 90s. Midwest heat returns next week during the last half of the week as a high-pressure Ridge returns with lower 90/100s. This heat and dryness will push soybean and corn crop maturity faster than desired and will produce yield.

Live and feeder cattle had a strong day on Thursday the firm outlook anticipated today. Strength came from ideas the cash trade could develop at steady or higher prices while feeder cattle observed corn price weakness. A small number of cattle traded yesterday reportedly in the north at $1 85-186 live and $9 1292 on the rail. Both prices were $one-to lower for the week but volume was very limited. Feedlots are holding firm with asking prices at $1-3 higher.

The August Livestock Slaughter report showed the July cattle kill was down 10% from June on fewer working days. The Fed cattle carcass weights gained 5 pounds from June but were 1 pound under a year ago. Beef production was down 6% year-over-year at a 6-year low.

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