Author: Ivan

WASDE 5/12/22 Data was friendly for corn and wheat with soybeans slightly negative to pre-report estimates.

CPI still running hot. Grain futures are higher this morning but well off the sharply higher status achieved in the morning hours before the CPI data came out. CPI data reflected a percentage increase when most estimates anticipated inflation cooling a bit. (CPI rose 8.3% year-over-year versus an estimate of 8.1%) This pushed the dollar…

Turn-around Tuesday on time. Monday’s shellacking led to a turn-around Tuesday overnight as grain prices recovered alongside equity valuations. The upcoming WASDA report on Thursday and the developing building drought in Europe create a new catalyst for price appreciation. The European weather forecast for W and N Europe for the next two weeks has temperatures…

Sharply lower equity markets creates risk-off in commodities. Row crop futures moved sharply lower last night as the equity markets continued their heavy liquidation, dragging energies and metals lower, which pushed corn and beans to the downside on potential bio-fuel reduced usage. (That may not be a fact heading into this time of year, but…

Spec Trade: Used the wrong chart for support. Rebuy a July corn at the MKT, 782 last with a 772 stop.

Spec Trade: Buy 1 July Corn at the MKT, 789.4 last with a 779 stop.

Stats Canada data deemed friendly for wheat and canola. Grain futures tumbled sharply in the night session, a negative reaction to the late heavy losses in the stock market, which saw risk-off trade driving prices lower. Also, a warmer forecast for next week offers more planting opportunities added to the selling. By morning wheat prices…

Tomorrow at 7:30 AM is Stats Canadas Stocks report as of March 31.

Spec Trade: Buy 1 Dec corn at the MKT, 737 last with a 726 stop.

Wheat futures lead the overnight price. Grain futures had seen strength all night, with wheat futures rising as concerns grew that India would eventually ban wheat exports. Indian wheat yield/collection data as the harvest is 50% complete are already disappointing, with commercial estimates of Indian wheat production possibly as low as 93-97 MMTs. Such a…