Russia turns on Nordstream 1 and oil tumbles.
Grain futures had a mixed start Wednesday evening, which turned into a freefall overnight, as crude oil tumbled as much as $5.00 a barrel when Russia restarted Nordstream 1 overnight to full capacity. As oil fell, the whole commodity world moved lower in its wake, with gold moving below 1700 and challenging the 2021 lows near 1680. This allowed corn and soybeans in the early morning hours to press lower and get within pennies of the July 5 low before a moderate bounce after export sales this morning. Corn and soybean export sales were considered better than the dismal expectations. China was in for a moderate amount of corn and beans.
Turkey continues working with Russia/Ukraine/the UN to work out the final details for the export corridor deal. This pack was supposed to be signed at the end of this week, but Russia has been seen stepping up its attacks in Ukraine, developing doubt that will occur. Time has not even been set for a signing, creating doubt that a deal can be struck during the war when there is no peace treaty. The market continues to wait and hopes that an agreement will be signed soon, but by next week will become apparent it may be dubious. The opening of the Nordstream gas line continues to maintain hope on Putin’s part.
Egypt and Pakistan purchased over 1 MMTs of wheat overnight, with Egypt paying $403-405/MTs with a combination of French, Russian, German and Lithuanian supplies. Wheat tonnage sales are picking up, indicating that harvest lows are in the works, with French milling wheat higher this morning by over $2.00 MTs while US values are softer.
The Central US weather models continue to agree that over the next 10 days integrating south and west allowing for an NW upper airflow through the Central US. This will produce around of needed rainfall for Nebraska and Iowa with totals of .4-1.50”. The rains start tomorrow and will continue into the middle of next week. The SW Midwest, Delta, and Kansas/Missouri will be short-changed as well as the Northern Plains with totals there only .1-.8”. Concerning is that in the 10-15 day forecast, the Ridge progresses back East into the Central US with a new round of heat and little rain by August 5.
Live cattle continue remain range bound whether it’s futures or cash and unwilling to push through recent ranges for the last 40 days. Cash trade is still developing yesterday Nebraska saw dressed trade at $227, which was $2 lower than last week. More trade should build today but the trend is steady slightly lower. With the USDA COF report out Friday, the trade is tightening. Keep in mind that seasonally fed cattle prices tend to forge their lows by early August and cattle supplies are not finding heavy cattle with all the heat in the South.