Cattle's Top and Tumble
Presented by Heartland Investor Capital Management Inc. CTA
Cattle:
USDA paused cattle imports after an animal was found north of infected zone, sparking panic buying.
Feeder cattle hit new all-time highs at $326.87 on the spot contract, up $6 per cwt.
Mexico’s president called the pause exaggerated, aiming to quickly reopen the border.
Live cattle posted an outside day down, raising concerns of a wave five top.
Cash trade still developing with bids near $224–$225, packers possibly delaying negotiations into the weekend.
Grains:
Export sales were strong, especially for old crop corn and beans, tightening carryout.
Corn exports now seen at 2.86B bu vs USDA’s 2.65B bu projection.
Soybean exports at 1.87B bu, slightly above USDA’s 1.85B estimate.
Market selling despite tightening supply raises questions about price discovery and policy motives.
Drought in parts of Illinois, Ohio, and North Dakota receiving little market attention.
WASDE Outlook:
Old crop corn ending stocks expected to decline; sub-1.3B bu possible.
Soybean old crop carryout may increase slightly, new crop still expected lower.
Wheat stocks seen steady; small tweaks possible but no major July changes expected.
CONAB raised Brazil’s corn yield above USDA; minor changes for soybeans and wheat.
Global stocks steady to slightly higher for corn and soybeans, wheat unchanged.
Wheat:
December Chicago wheat chart shows inverted head-and-shoulders with bullish breakout signals.
Outside day up today, closing at session highs and filling post-holiday gap.
Harvest 70% complete, pressure easing into Friday’s report.
Bullish follow-through expected into weekend; long position ahead by 5.5 cents.
Crude Oil:
Stalled below 38% retracement, signaling potential bearish wave three.
Close below $65 would confirm breakdown, with targets near $55.
77-day moving average critical for trend confirmation.
Provided by:
Eugene Graner,
Heartland Investor Capitol Management, Inc., CTA
(A separate entity from Heartland Investor Services)
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