Wheat Building a Bottom

Wheat:
Bloomberg confirms China's wheat harvest at 5-year low due to drought; reserves will need replenishing later, likely tightening global balance sheets.
USDA reaction expected once mainstream headlines are acknowledged.
U.S. harvest delays from persistent rains increasing disease risk, especially in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.
Historical pattern: wet weather lowers yield despite strong straw—possible repeat forming.
Counter-seasonal rally developing: V-bottom forming in May (normally a seasonal high month).
December wheat repeatedly testing resistance trendline, with multiple “bangs” suggesting potential breakout.
Key bullish trigger: Close above 582.5 in December Chicago wheat.
Minneapolis wheat forms a key reversal day up despite rain forecasts—bullish signal supported by prior patterns.

Corn:
July corn remains weak; September will soon take lead.
Vietnam rumored to buy 900,000 MT corn—market unmoved.
Ethanol data positive but failed to support prices.
July continues flat; bears eyeing 417–420 on continuation chart.
December corn bounces from channel support; two-day rally may face selling pressure on third day.

Soybeans:
November beans retreat after testing 50-day moving average.
Technical resistance at 1050 proving difficult to overcome.
Potential wave 5 decline setup if price fails here.

Cattle:
Market rebounded after false rumor of Cargill plant closure.
Cash market still firm despite bearish sentiment and sloppy box beef.
Outside day down followed by strong upside move—resistance near 214.50 (May high).
August cattle could re-enter bullish “box” range if strength continues.
Feeder cattle near prior highs at 786 retracement level; closing above 205 could imply new highs.
Feeder index climbing above 310—watch for rollover if wave C unfolds.

Crude Oil:
Key reversal day down despite recent overnight strength.
Market stuck in 30+ day channel—making predictive wave counts difficult.
Longer-term forecast still targets low $50s by August–September, ahead of hurricane season.