June WASDE Preview
Presented by Heartland Investor Capital Management Inc. CTA
Corn:
WASDE report due Thursday at 11 AM, major focus on old crop ending stocks.
Guesses range 1.3 to 1.46 billion bushels; author expects 1.325.
New crop corn estimates around 1.789 but possibly under 1.8.
Corn exports questioned, but usage remains strong via sales and ethanol.
Technicals show bullish flag; market closed on highs despite overnight pressure.
Basis improving, selling limited; possibility of move toward 450 on USDA data.
New crop corn showing resilience, closing on highs again.
Soybeans:
WASDE guess suggests 5 million bushel increase in new crop ending stocks.
Market trapped in a 60-day range, stuck since early April.
Tried to break resistance but remains range-bound.
Market awaiting clarity on China-US trade negotiations, which could lift demand.
Wheat:
Slight increase in total production expected, mostly from winter wheat.
Disease pressure in northern areas not yet reflected in USDA estimates.
Dryness persists in France, Germany, Baltics; weather still key.
Chicago wheat outside day up Friday failed to follow through.
Algorithmic trading blamed for recent weakness.
Kansas City wheat similar setup, sold hard after Friday strength.
Market may be awaiting June 19 cycle low before turning.
Cattle:
Morning strength gave way to mid-session selloff, but recovered into close.
Rumor of ICE agents in Grand Island caused concern; turned out to be false.
Market resumed firm tone once clarified as a slowdown, not shutdown.
June live cattle hit 227 target; market could stall here.
Feeder cattle targeting 316–320 via measuring gap method.
Final fifth wave patterns in place for both live and feeder cattle.
Crude Oil:
Pushed above resistance intraday, but closed back below trendline.
Technical count suggests ABC bounce underway.
Bounce could carry to $70 on August contract before resuming downtrend.
Lift partially attributed to positive China-US trade sentiment.
Provided by:
Eugene Graner,
Heartland Investor Capitol Management, Inc., CTA
(A separate entity from Heartland Investor Services)
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