WASDE Preview and Weekend Thoughts
Presented by Heartland Investor Capital Management Inc. CTA
Corn:
Made new spring lows before bouncing into the close
Failed to close unchanged; no key reversa
WASDE may peg yield at 181 bpa with 2B+ carryout
Strong export sales at 1.66 MMT; Mexico continues buying amid drought
Market sentiment overly bearish; surprise rally possible on trade talk developments
Soybeans:
Traded sideways near 200- and 100-day moving averages
WASDE likely shows 52.5 bpa and 368M carryout
Soy oil closed on high, offering upward support
Brazil harvest delays tightening global bean supply
Nov beans over 1035 would signal breakout
Wheat:
KC made contract low; Chicago held support and bounced
Spring wheat firmer, helped by Northern Plains dryness
USDA expects nearly 100M bu decline in winter wheat
China’s crop concerns could support global wheat values later
Weather Outlook:
Soil moisture short in western Dakotas, Nebraska, and parts of Iowa
Forecasts drying up into mid-May
June 1 becomes critical if rains don’t materialize
Bermuda high developing could intensify summer dryness risks
Cattle:
Live cattle and feeders set new contract highs
Wave 1 structure still unfolding; no measurable top yet
Futures lagging cash; upside risk remains high
Hedge with options or LRPs—futures riskier due to discount
Gold:
Stalled at 78.6% retracement of recent drop
Potential early cycle turn ahead of weekend
Trade optimism weighing on safe-haven interest
Risk of break lower toward $2000 if trend continues
Crude Oil:
Rallied sharply; wave 1 of 3 may have begun
Could correct slightly before resuming uptrend
Key levels watched to confirm trend shift
Rally driven by geopolitical positioning and trade narrative shifts
Provided by:
Eugene Graner,
Heartland Investor Capitol Management, Inc., CTA
(A separate entity from Heartland Investor Services)
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable to Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK of LOSS involved in trading futures and / or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. The information contained in this newsletter is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this message or any attachment is strictly prohibited. Provided by Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. a registered CTA with the NFA, of which Eugene Graner is principal. This entity is a separate legal entity from the Introducing Broker Heartland Investor Services.