Possible Counter-Seasonal Wheat Rally
Presented by Heartland Investor Capital Management Inc. CTA
Wheat:
China's Henan province, responsible for over 25% of national wheat, is under heat stress, including irrigated areas. Little rain is forecast through May 20.
Potential for China to return to the world wheat market if crop losses worsen, possibly buying from France or Australia.
European dryness in Germany, France, and Poland may become a developing story if conditions persist.
U.S. winter wheat showed technical support; intraday indicators hint at a potential turn higher if values hold above 635.
Minneapolis spring wheat outperformed, supported by dry conditions in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies. Chart structure suggests further gains possible.
Corn:
Corn remains weak, threatening a break to the 420 range if it doesn’t rally soon.
Technical pattern suggests ongoing wave two correction if prices don't recover this week.
Talk of 100 trade deals, including 17 viable ones, could support a potential rebound if export announcements materialize.
Soybeans:
Soybeans also at a critical level, testing the 100-day moving average.
A break lower implies further downside and a slump below the 200-day MA.
Needs immediate strength to avoid deeper correction.
Crude Oil:
Crude showing completed 5-wave decline; potential for sharp ABC bounce toward $63.50–$64.
Rally would be corrective ahead of a deeper wave 3 drop, possibly below $50 longer-term.
Weather Outlook:
China’s Henan province remains dry, adding global supply risk to wheat.
Europe continues dry through May 16, adding potential bullish support.
U.S. Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies also face dryness, aiding spring wheat sentiment.
Provided by:
Eugene Graner,
Heartland Investor Capitol Management, Inc., CTA
(A separate entity from Heartland Investor Services)
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