Things To Worry About
Presented by Heartland Investor Capital Management Inc. CTA
Cattle:
False report of screw worm outbreak in Missouri triggered sharp intraday cattle selloff.
Feeder cattle fell over $7/cwt; live cattle down $4 before partial recovery.
APHIS debunked the story, but markets failed to return to unchanged.
Technical setup suggests more downside; wave patterns imply further correction.
Feeder Cattle:
Opened higher but couldn't fill the morning gap before reversing lower.
Closed down on the day despite late-session recovery.
Still in corrective B-wave pattern; potential for a deeper C-wave down to trendline support.
Wheat:
Chicago and Kansas wheat gave back half of last week’s gains after forming strong V-bottoms.
Index funds heavily short across global wheat markets (Chicago, KC, French milling).
Threat of renewed Ukraine-Russia escalation is growing, especially around the critical Kerch Bridge.
Any attack on this export artery could sharply spike wheat prices due to export disruption.
Corn:
Holding above 200-day moving average with firm export demand.
USDA may need to raise export forecast by 100 million bushels.
December contract stalling, but potential for buying if exports continue strong.
Soybeans:
Mixed signals with inside day action after recent bullish reversals.
November beans staying strong above 200-day MA, potentially targeting $11.
Market watching EPA decision on RVOs possibly exceeding 5 billion gallons.
Russia-Ukraine Situation:
Russia launched heavy missile and drone attacks across Ukraine on Sunday.
NATO has greenlit Ukraine to use long-range munitions without prior restrictions.
Kerch Bridge remains a strategic vulnerability—potential disruption could cripple Russian wheat exports.
Political rhetoric from Trump and Biden amplifies risk sentiment.
Planting Progress:
Estimates: 87% corn, 77% soybeans, spring wheat progress improving despite prior rains.
Crop condition scores expected mostly steady; spring wheat may rise slightly above 70%.
ND still lags in planting due to recent rain delays, but progress expected in east.
Technical Notes:
Chicago wheat stalled under trendline and moving average resistance.
Kansas wheat rejected from resistance, pressured back below trendline.
Corn and soybeans maintaining key moving averages, setting up for potential upside.
Provided by:
Eugene Graner,
Heartland Investor Capitol Management, Inc., CTA
(A separate entity from Heartland Investor Services)
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable to Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK of LOSS involved in trading futures and / or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. The information contained in this newsletter is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this message or any attachment is strictly prohibited. Provided by Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. a registered CTA with the NFA, of which Eugene Graner is principal. This entity is a separate legal entity from the Introducing Broker Heartland Investor Services.