If The Bears Only Knew
Presented by Heartland Investor Capital Management Inc. CTA
Wheat
Market surged after forecasts removed meaningful Kansas moisture, confirming severe stress in key northern production areas.
Crop condition report understated damage, but trade shifted focus to worsening weather outlook overnight.
Kansas, eastern Colorado, and parts of Nebraska face significant yield loss with minimal relief expected.
Price reached key technical target near 705 with upside extension toward 720 possible.
Wave structure suggests a near term top could form early next week followed by a volatile corrective phase.
Seasonals turn negative into May as early harvest pressure emerges, especially in southern regions.
We have cleaned up old crop and initiated new crop sales into strength.
Corn
Corn continues to be pulled higher by wheat strength, maintaining relative discount near 2.20 per bushel.
Market trading within retracement zone with bullish structure suggesting continuation higher.
Next upside target sits near 490 into May before likely consolidation.
Strong export demand and potential Chinese buying underpin support.
We plan to reduce long exposure on strength into upper 470s and reassess on pullbacks.
New crop corn making contract highs with minimal sales completed so far.
Spring Wheat
Minneapolis wheat finally broke out, reaching key resistance zone from prior support levels.
Dry topsoil conditions persist despite adequate subsoil moisture.
Additional rainfall needed soon to support early development and root establishment.
We have used the rally to finalize old crop sales and begin new crop positioning.
Cattle
Live cattle breakout continues with June contract pushing to new highs above 252.
Measured move targets point toward 262 as next upside objective.
Feeder cattle approaching resistance near 377 with potential extension toward 383 and beyond.
Market remains in an aging bull phase with limited upside acceleration but continued strength.
Strategy remains focused on risk management through LRP and options near target zones.
Weather Outlook
Forecast shifts removed critical rainfall from Kansas and surrounding areas.
Northern Kansas and adjacent regions face the greatest stress with little relief in sight.
Eastern areas may receive moisture, but core production zones remain dry.
Weather remains the dominant driver for price direction in the near term.
Provided by:
Eugene Graner,
Heartland Investor Capitol Management, Inc., CTA
(A separate entity from Heartland Investor Services)
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable to Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK of LOSS involved in trading futures and / or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. The information contained in this newsletter is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this message or any attachment is strictly prohibited. Provided by Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. a registered CTA with the NFA, of which Eugene Graner is principal. This entity is a separate legal entity from the Introducing Broker Heartland Investor Services.