Beans Breakout
Presented by Heartland Investor Capital Management Inc. CTA
Corn:
Export sales remain strong; USDA may be underestimating by ~100 million bushels.
Carryout could tighten to 1.3 billion, driving summer volatility.
Wave 4 technical correction complete; setting up for potential Wave 5 rally.
Resistance around 470 on December corn if weather adds fuel.
Soybeans:
Likely export revision needed despite no China; carryout could tighten to 300 million.
Technical breakout above 200-day MA would support move toward $11.
Soybean oil closes above 50¢ for first time in over a year; targeting 53–55¢.
Meal weak on crush spreads; oil leading the rally.
Strategy includes short-dated August puts for protection post-July.
Wheat:
Chicago wheat holds above key trendline; spec stop missed by ¼ cent.
Dry weather in China/Black Sea could lift prices after options expiration.
Weather remains key wild card for early May rally.
Weather Outlook:
Northern Plains dry, especially North Dakota with <50% of seasonal moisture.
BAMWX shows widespread below-normal precip May–July from TX to ND.
Key analog years: 2008, 2012, 1996 — all major drought seasons.
Models (GFS/Euro/Canadian) agree on dry summer outlook.
May warmer/drier — good for planting, risky for yields.
Cattle:
Live cattle possibly in “three drives to a high”; failure = deep correction.
Minimal boxed beef gains; packers hesitant at $214 bids.
Upside target if rally holds is 211 June futures, ~217–219 cash.
Feeder Cattle:
August feeders gap up to trend resistance; breakout above 294 opens path to just under 300.
Chart suggests Wave 1 peak forming before Wave 2 correction.
Crude Oil:
Outside day down confirms stall at resistance; bounce fails to regain ground.
OPEC expansion and Iran deal weigh on outlook.
Further decline possible after short-term chop ends.
Provided by:
Eugene Graner,
Heartland Investor Capitol Management, Inc., CTA
(A separate entity from Heartland Investor Services)
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable to Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK of LOSS involved in trading futures and / or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. The information contained in this newsletter is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this message or any attachment is strictly prohibited. Provided by Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. a registered CTA with the NFA, of which Eugene Graner is principal. This entity is a separate legal entity from the Introducing Broker Heartland Investor Services.