Midnight Rally, Morning Reality
Presented by Heartland Investor Capital Management Inc. CTA
Corn:
Overnight strength followed crude oil higher before early session selling pressure hit the market.
Farmer selling remains active on rallies with ample bushels still unsold.
First new crop December sale executed at 473 representing a 15 percent position.
That price sits within four cents of the best forward opportunity of the past year.
Input cost concerns especially urea from the Middle East could tighten margins and impact trend yield expectations.
Soybeans:
New highs again overnight but failed to hold during the day session.
Inside day with a higher close keeps prior highs technically significant.
Two hour continuation chart shows layered support near 1156 to 1159.
Chinese buying expectations tied to political leverage remain a core bullish narrative.
November beans targeting 1140 to 1150 zone for potential short dated option strategies.
Soybean Oil and Meal:
Soybean oil completed roughly a 50 percent retracement of the 2022 high on the monthly chart.
Five wave structure suggests potential pause or correction.
Meal showing relative strength and may lead next leg higher.
Crush margins remain historically strong unless oil enters deeper correction.
Wheat:
Kansas City wheat working through a 30 to 60 day cycle window.
Export uncertainty continues amid renewed Russia Ukraine conflict near Odessa.
Plains moisture remains uneven with western areas still dry.
Technical arc continues to favor upside attempts into March and April risk window.
Cattle:
Live cattle showing potential left shoulder head right shoulder topping formation on weekly chart.
Two consecutive lower weekly lows confirmed.
Wave structure suggests recovery bounce possible toward 238 to 242 before larger downside risk resumes.
Feeder cattle broke sharply with potential wave two recovery toward 20 day moving average near 363 to 364.
Crude Oil:
Overnight high near 78 approached major price association resistance just under 79 on weekly structure.
Late session fade tied to discussion of military escorts in the Strait of Hormuz and insurance stabilization.
Fibonacci resistance aligns near 82 to 83 as extreme upside boundary.
Expectation remains that easing Middle East tensions could quickly return crude below 70 with broader market implications.
Provided by:
Eugene Graner,
Heartland Investor Capitol Management, Inc., CTA
(A separate entity from Heartland Investor Services)
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable to Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK of LOSS involved in trading futures and / or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. The information contained in this newsletter is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this message or any attachment is strictly prohibited. Provided by Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. a registered CTA with the NFA, of which Eugene Graner is principal. This entity is a separate legal entity from the Introducing Broker Heartland Investor Services.