KC Wheat Takes A Nap
Presented by Heartland Investor Capital Management Inc. CTA
Kansas City Wheat:
Gained $0.40 per bushel since March 4th low, nearing 78% retracement after clearing moving average resistance.
Typical trading cycle: peaks Tuesday morning, dips by Thursday, potential rally on Fridays.
Heat anomalies and below-normal temps in the US Plains; dryness in Russia, Ukraine, and India adding to supply concerns.
Chicago Wheat and Global Market Impact:
Chicago Wheat rally viewed by bears as an ABC corrective wave, with potential for new lows.
Russian wheat exports restricted until June; Ukraine's supply constrained due to war and poor weather.
Index funds heavily short; a close above $6.47-$6.77 could trigger short covering.
Corn Market Analysis:
Corn hovering around 62% retracement, eyeing 78% near $4.54-$4.49 before a potential reversal.
Sorghum used in ethanol affects corn demand in feedlots; Kansas prefers feeding sorghum.
Tight global corn stocks suggest seasonal highs in early April, May, or June.
Soybeans and Market Coiling:
Soybeans tightly consolidating since March 4th; today's range inside prior day's range.
Strong Brazilian basis driven by Chinese demand; harvest 50% complete.
Break above $10.50 for multiple sessions could signal a recovery rally; failure may lead to sharp declines.
Cattle Market Trends:
June cattle testing contract highs, with seasonal patterns hinting at potential weakness into April.
Feeder cattle near wave 3 peak; wave 4 pullback expected before another push higher.
Resistance around $204-$205; cautious sentiment with market “frothy” and overextended.
Crude Oil and Market Outlook:
Crude oil showing bearish signs after an outside day down; potential wave 3 decline starting.
Two-day rallies consistently followed by breaks; ongoing zigzag lower pattern.
Fuel prices could be cheaper later in the year compared to forward contracts bought in December.
Provided by:
Eugene Graner,
Heartland Investor Capitol Management, Inc., CTA
(A separate entity from Heartland Investor Services)
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable to Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK of LOSS involved in trading futures and / or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. The information contained in this newsletter is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this message or any attachment is strictly prohibited. Provided by Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. a registered CTA with the NFA, of which Eugene Graner is principal. This entity is a separate legal entity from the Introducing Broker Heartland Investor Services.