Wheat Surge In The Making
Presented by Heartland Investor Capital Management Inc. CTA
Grain Stocks and USDA Report:
Corn ending stocks unchanged at 1.507 billion bushels, despite expectations for a reduction.
Soybean ending stocks held steady at 380 million bushels; no changes from last month.
Wheat stocks increased by 25 million bushels due to slower exports, more than expected.
World corn stocks down to 288.9 million metric tons, citing reduced US supplies.
World soybean stocks dropped 3 million metric tons, driven by strong Chinese demand and domestic crush.
Weather Outlook and Crop Impact:
July-August outlook shows much below precipitation for key Corn Belt regions.
Drought conditions remain across western areas; Eastern Illinois and Indiana look better.
Dry conditions could challenge USDA’s February 94 million corn acreage projection.
Potential for reduced corn production if precipitation doesn't improve by planting season.
Grain Market Technicals:
Soybeans: Strong recovery off lows, but resistance near 1035; potential for further decline into April-May if ABC correction completes.
Corn: After testing 200-day MA, possible wave two pullback to 460-464 before potential wave three higher.
Wheat: Hit 60-day low, bounced; seasonally tends to rally into April, but dryness in Russia/Ukraine could push prices up near-term.
Cattle Markets:
Live Cattle: Major 190 support held; potential wave two pullback to 192 before next rally, as June contract rolls in.
Feeder Cattle: Completed five waves up, possible wave two correction to 270 zone; longer-term wave five peak may align with August/September contracts.
Crude Oil:
Bearish trend persists with rallies sold; potential resistance at $69 before wave three lower resumes.
Fuel prices expected to ease as crude prices decline; hand-to-mouth buying strategy recommended.
Long-term outlook stays bearish with continued supply pressures and weak demand forecasts.
Provided by:
Eugene Graner,
Heartland Investor Capitol Management, Inc., CTA
(A separate entity from Heartland Investor Services)
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable to Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK of LOSS involved in trading futures and / or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. The information contained in this newsletter is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this message or any attachment is strictly prohibited. Provided by Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. a registered CTA with the NFA, of which Eugene Graner is principal. This entity is a separate legal entity from the Introducing Broker Heartland Investor Services.