It Remains About Oil Volatility

USDA WASDE Report
The March WASDE report was largely a non event with very few meaningful changes.
Soybean imports increased 5 million bushels while crush increased by the same amount, leaving ending stocks essentially unchanged.
Most figures landed within trade expectations, providing little fresh direction for grain markets.

Crude Oil Market
Crude oil continues to drive grain sentiment as geopolitical headlines dominate price action.
Prices briefly spiked to 120 Sunday night before falling after the G7 announced plans to release strategic petroleum reserves.
Oil bottomed Monday after comments suggesting the conflict may be winding down, though that statement was widely questioned.
A false report about a U.S. Navy escort through the Strait of Hormuz caused additional volatility before being debunked.
Crude recovered late in the session, climbing back above 86 dollars per barrel.

Energy Technical Levels
Key resistance now sits between 89.50 and 91 dollars per barrel.
A breakout above that range would likely signal renewed geopolitical escalation or supply disruption concerns tied to Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.

Soybeans
Soybeans tested and held the expected support zone between 11.77 and 11.85, aligning with previous wave structure support.
Holding this level keeps the bullish structure intact and suggests the market may attempt another leg higher.
Resistance is expected near the 12.20 area before a potential pullback develops.
If crude oil continues strengthening and fertilizer supply issues persist, beans could eventually challenge the 13 dollar level.

Fertilizer and Brazil Concerns
Fertilizer shipments remain a key issue as urea movement out of the Persian Gulf remains slow.
Brazil’s corn crop could face risk if fertilizer imports remain delayed, which would tighten global supply expectations.

Live Cattle
April live cattle rallied sharply but ran into resistance near the 234 to 235 level.
Boxed beef prices continue climbing toward the 400 level, though technical resistance may limit futures in the near term.
Potential labor disruptions at packing plants in Greeley, Colorado remain a watch item, though processors appear prepared to shift cattle if needed.

Feeder Cattle
Feeder cattle stalled near the projected resistance around 351 before slipping back late in the session.
Major resistance remains closer to 360.
As contracts roll toward May feeders, which are trading at a discount, technical signals still suggest the potential for another lower low into next week.