Soybean Bears On Notice
Presented by Heartland Investor Capital Management Inc. CTA
Soybeans:
Double barrel rally on strong crush numbers and tight soybean oil stocks
Pushed back over 1070 overnight
200 day moving average holding as support
Spike low Monday recovering Tuesday
Argentine weather concerns providing support
Soybean Oil:
Back to best levels of the year
45Z biodiesel credit program entering 60-day public comment period
Doubling of green biodiesel credits anticipated
Looking like 123 fourth wave correction complete
Targeting 78% retracement near 55.50
Corn:
Maintained strength throughout session
Wave two low likely at 424 on Monday
Wave three developing but stalled at 434 resistance
Close above 437 signals move to 450 range
USDA rumored to increase demand on February 10th report
Wheat (Kansas City):
Pulled back after three closes above 5.30
Nearly kissed 5.30 support today
Expected two to three day pullback pattern
Potential move higher into early March
60 day cycle approaching
Wheat (Chicago):
Holding above 200 day moving average
Russian/Ukrainian Siberian weather threats
Temperatures minus 12°F on unprotected wheat ground
Potential production concerns for corn and wheat
Russian wheat value up $2 per metric ton
French Milling Wheat:
March contract at highest level in 70 days
Closed above 192 per metric ton
New highs back to November
Holding above 78 day moving average
Continuation chart showing sideways strength
Argentina Weather:
Southern soybean regions missing rainfall
30 day precipitation deficit in Santa Fe, Córdoba, Buenos Aires
Forecasts not materializing
Daily highs peaking near or above 100°F
Argentina may need to import soybeans from Brazil
Live Cattle:
April contract broke above 240 and 241
241 was 78% retracement level
Targeting 245 for wave two
Possible failed fifth wave scenario
50% retracement of prior low holding
Feeder Cattle:
15 day exponential moving average holding
Blue line defining bullish/bearish structure
Targeting 375 for possible left shoulder top
Potential head and shoulders formation
Wave five structure could reach 400
Hogs:
Bolting to new highs
Summer 2026 contracts anticipated 110 to 115 range
Now entering hedge hunting season
Historical pattern suggesting rally continuation
Similar to 2023 summer contract behavior
Crude Oil:
Up over $1 on Iranian drone incident
Drone attempted approach to US aircraft carrier
Possible high found last week
Did not close above prior high
Setup for pullback and potential new lows second quarter
Diesel Fuel:
Got anticipated spiking effect last week
Break following the spike
Buying opportunity expected near 210
Possible decline to 190 as discussed December
Continuation chart rolled to new contract
Energy Markets:
Supportive across the board Tuesday
Iranian tensions providing geopolitical premium
Trend still developing
Black Swan Season:
February and March notorious for black swan events
Last year's event occurred after March 1st
Time for LRPs and option hedging strategies
Cattle strength makes this ideal hedging window
Provided by:
Eugene Graner,
Heartland Investor Capitol Management, Inc., CTA
(A separate entity from Heartland Investor Services)
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable to Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK of LOSS involved in trading futures and / or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. The information contained in this newsletter is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this message or any attachment is strictly prohibited. Provided by Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. a registered CTA with the NFA, of which Eugene Graner is principal. This entity is a separate legal entity from the Introducing Broker Heartland Investor Services.