End Of The Month Grain Swing
Presented by Heartland Investor Capital Management Inc. CTA
Grains:
Grain declined on speculation of increased Black Sea exports, despite Ukraine's drought limiting supply.
Soybeans held the 100-day moving average, supported by Argentine crop concerns and meal strength.
Market overreacting to peace talks; Black Sea exports remain near 80% of pre-war levels.
Corn finding support near key technical levels, with a potential bounce ahead of acreage reports.
Wheat down five days but could rebound as dormancy breaks and second-quarter rallies emerge.
Black Sea & Ukraine:
Market reacts to peace talks between Presidents Trump and Macron aiming to end the Ukrainian war.
Black Sea exports remain near 80% of pre-war levels despite headlines suggesting increased grain flow.
Ukraine’s drought limits immediate export capacity; Russia’s wheat exports declining through June.
Cattle:
April cattle held trendline support; potential wave five rally forming.
Boxed beef possibly bottomed last week; feeder cattle showing leadership in recovery.
Fall cattle contracts likely to see higher peaks compared to spring contracts.
Gold:
Gold hit resistance after early February highs; historical trend suggests sideways trading until May.
Strong dollar retreat could support grains despite gold’s $50 drop on economic data.
Watch for seasonal gold bottom near year-end with rallies into early February.
Crude Oil:
Crude oil broke after short rallies; struggling below key retracement levels.
Potential March bounce as refinery maintenance season begins.
Chinese economic concerns and stock builds keep pressure on prices.
U.S. Dollar & Canola:
Dollar fell to significant support levels; weaker dollar favors grains.
Canola stalled near 700 resistance; bean oil softened despite supportive factors.
Market watching USDA acreage estimates and Canadian market moves.
Provided by:
Eugene Graner,
Heartland Investor Capitol Management, Inc., CTA
(A separate entity from Heartland Investor Services)
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable to Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK of LOSS involved in trading futures and / or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. The information contained in this newsletter is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this message or any attachment is strictly prohibited. Provided by Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. a registered CTA with the NFA, of which Eugene Graner is principal. This entity is a separate legal entity from the Introducing Broker Heartland Investor Services.