Something To Worry About In The Cattle
Presented by Heartland Investor Capital Management Inc. CTA
Feeder Cattle:
The rally may extend beyond $286 if historical wave extensions repeat.
A wave four pullback could hold trendline support or extend further.
Previous breaks from February highs ranged from 4% to 9.5%.
February 2022 saw a $28 drop after an initial high; similar scenarios may repeat.
Post-fall contracts historically create a bearish premium correction.
The market remains sensitive to supply-demand dynamics and Black Swan risks.
Live Cattle:
Prices may test $218-$219 before encountering resistance.
Seasonal February highs are often followed by sharp corrections into March and April.
Consumer demand contraction could trigger a swift decline below $200.
Tariff policy reversals could reduce costs, pressuring domestic prices.
February contracts often trade at a discount, reacting only late in the month.
Historical April contract drops often trace back to February highs.
Key Risks:
January 31 inventory report may reveal herd expansion, unsettling prices.
Possible withdrawal of tariffs on Mexican feeder cattle by February 1.
Seasonal pattern forecasting a post-Valentine’s Day market setback.
Potential market volatility if feeder cattle imports expand or demand softens.
Consumer-driven price walls may contribute to a sudden market retreat.
Provided by:
Eugene Graner,
Heartland Investor Capitol Management, Inc., CTA
(A separate entity from Heartland Investor Services)
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable to Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK of LOSS involved in trading futures and / or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. The information contained in this newsletter is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this message or any attachment is strictly prohibited. Provided by Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. a registered CTA with the NFA, of which Eugene Graner is principal. This entity is a separate legal entity from the Introducing Broker Heartland Investor Services.