Grain futures are mixed this morning, with soybeans still showing strong gains. Overnight prices pressed higher across the board on follow-through buying from yesterday’s strong performance, but stalled during the classic 4:00 a.m. CT window when the Matif in Paris opens and the grain trade begins its typical retreat into the end of the overnight session. Oil prices were softer overnight, but losing over $2.00 of yesterday’s gains certainly affected row crop values, which drifted.

Soybeans remain firm this morning after rechallenging last week’s highs on persistent rumors that China is close to lowering its 10% tariff on US soybeans and other agricultural products. This morning’s flash sales should reflect continued buying, but once tariff reductions are announced, private companies in China can start purchasing US beans, rather than only state-owned companies that are not hampered by this. There’s also a prospect that China will buy some corn either in front of their visit on September 24 or shortly thereafter. China is likely covered in the futures market for any buying it announces, so it would be a matter of procuring physical supplies.

Early US yield reports are coming in with mixed numbers. While it is still early to determine a solid yield number from these reports, nearly all farmers say their yields are down year over year. This is more prevalent for corn to start, but the same is being heard on soybeans as well. Trade is also reacting to yesterday’s CONAB data, which lowered export outlooks, primarily for corn. Brazil is seeing expansion in its ethanol industry, cutting exportable reserves. Last week’s decline in global grain stocks in the WASDE report is still supporting futures as well. Gains are being held in check by limited fresh news and seasonal harvest pressure.

Yesterday’s NOPA report came in below expectations at 205.45 Mil Bu, but only because one crush plant was offline. Still, the oil supplies were below expectations and the lowest since November 2024. Imagine if all crush plants were operational. A new crush plant will also open soon in Wisconsin and will crush 80 Mil Bu/year. Imports are still very important, but are losing their grip as the US continues to find more domestic use.

The Federal Reserve meeting is wrapping up today, and it will announce its decision at 1:00 p.m. CT. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. Inflation is not slowing in the US, and rising energy costs will push inflation even higher. The odds of a rate hike are at 90% this morning.

Yesterday, Ukraine estimated its wheat crop at 22-25 MMT, a wide range, but the USDA puts it at 26 MMT. They also forecast exports of 10.5 MMT, while the USDA projects a more optimistic 12.5 MMT. All these numbers are moot, as the Black Sea is closed for business and exports are curtailed far more than the balance sheets suggest. Importers are wrapping themselves up inside a white flag, hoping for a positive development, but unfortunately Ukraine continues to strike Russian energy facilities, and Russia has already stated they are set for a war that will carry into the winter.

Harvest season is here, but rain disruptions are affecting some areas. The bullish structure of the grain trade continues to reveal itself, with corn and soybeans rallying like a strong heartbeat on the charts, showing an uptrend still alive, but congestion remains the order of the day as this bull market grazes. Chart-based support levels have held after the WASDE/Crop Production report. December Chicago wheat: 710-720; Dec corn: 421-426; November beans: 1290-1300.