It’s crop report day, but wheat futures bolted higher overnight as Black Sea tensions picked up again, with Ukraine launching a major attack on Novorossiysk, Russia’s most important deepwater grain export hub. The attack reportedly included drones and Neptune missiles, forcing two major Russian grain terminals to temporarily halt operations while damage is assessed.

There are reports of fires on several loadout legs, but the damage so far has not been assessed. That makes the length of the shutdown important if damage to one of the three legs is irreparable. If operations resume quickly, the market may shrug it off, but any extended disruption could slow Russian wheat exports and put some Black Sea risk premium back into wheat prices. This comes as peace talks remain in the background, with no confirmation that Russia will participate, leaving wheat caught between improving hopes for a deal and continued attacks on critical export infrastructure. Obviously, for Ukraine, the large Odesa Port could be a revenge target from Russia.

Corn and soybeans followed higher as spreads helped elevate corn, which also supported meal. The most important thing for row crops today is the data out at 11:00 a.m. CT. Yields are anticipated to be slightly lower for corn and soybeans based on diminished crop conditions compared to last year at this time. But FSA data could cause a larger swing. There is chatter that the USDA will have lower yields but will offset them with larger acreage, maintaining carryouts. It’ll be interesting to see if the USDA continues to slow-roll the demand for corn that is above their applications in stocks-to-use.

The EU corn crop is going down as a disaster for this year, and the USDA will need to reflect lower world corn stocks and bump up their reduced expectations for US new-crop corn exports, which are likely to be low by 100 Mil Bu. So many moving pieces come together today, but signs point to a US corn carryout dropping, even after today’s data set produced by USDA staff who are likely less experienced than last year’s, with early retirements and relocations. We are price-friendly after today’s data release is completed.

The weather forecast remains the same: rain in the east, while dryness stays in the southern half of the Great Plains, southern Midwest, and Delta. Temperatures will be in the 90s to 100s in areas that continue to remain in a flash drought.