October 15, 2026

Grain Overview

The overnight grain trade saw wheat and corn test yesterday’s lows before finding support, keeping this week’s consolidation above last Friday’s lows intact and constructive. Meanwhile, soybeans saw follow-through selling overnight after yesterday’s poor chart performance, despite the first announcement of a large Chinese purchase of 470,000 MTs of beans.

Some of yesterday’s grain price weakness was blamed on the sharp rise in the US dollar from the hot CPI reading. This morning, the US dollar is softening ahead of the Producer Price Index, out at 7:30 a.m. this morning. The dollar has given back all of yesterday’s gains and is down ½ a percent currently.

What the USDA revealed to us last Friday is that crop conditions potentially mean nothing and should not be gotten excited about on Monday afternoons. As of October 13, which is late in the game and not relevant much anymore but reflects where the condition scores have pretty much been for the last 2 weeks, Nebraska is rated at 48% good/excellent. This would be the 6th poorest-rated corn crop since 1991. For comparison, 2022 had a 22% rated crop and yielded 165 bpa, while 2023 was rated at 51% and yielded 182 bpa. For October 2026, they have it at 188 bpa. A running theory is that due to lack of USDA personnel in September, not enough corn acres under irrigation were sampled compared to October.

2025 ARC and PLC payments should be hitting bank accounts very soon. An estimated $13.2 to $13.8 BILLION dollars will be paid out to producers across the US. According to Farm Doc, farmdocdaily.illinois.edu, the following payments will be made based on the commodity enrolled with the base acres. Corn acres will account for $4.6 bln, or 35.3% of all payments, wheat totals $2.9 bln, or 22%, and soybeans 11.4%, or $1.5 bln.

There are a few days left for harvest that carries into the weekend. Moderate to heavy showers will move in starting Saturday; progress should start to reestablish itself next week by Monday. South American weather is nonthreatening at this time, but it is the intensity of monsoonal rains in northern Brazil that are to get underway in November that will be the measurement of the strength of the super El Niño. Climate expectations for November-December would be concerning, as super El Niños typically produce a pattern of below-normal rainfall.

This morning, Euronext corn is maintaining all of the sharp gains of the last 3 sessions and is up €0.50 a ton at €303.50. Meanwhile, French milling wheat, posting its highest close of the year yesterday, is only lower by €0.50 at €247.75. This is giving support due to the extreme discount that US wheat and corn have fallen to European values. It’s just a matter of time, weeks, and we should see nontraditional demand sharp for corn. Wheat will not likely capture any interest yet unless discounts become more severe, as French and German origin will likely be featured for now. Australian wheat supplies start to become available at the end of next month.

Soybeans struggled yesterday on friendly news, as the trade advertises that Chinese bean sales are already price-factored in, and it’s a concern over growing yield in the November crop report that could bolster the carryout above 315 Mil Bu that is the reason for selling. Very profitable crush margins are throwing alternating support between soybean meal and soybean oil. Renewed soybean meal strength over the past session is needed to continue to keep soybean prices from breaking much farther. November soybeans pressed Friday’s lows by $0.02 and this morning are trading back above that value. Soybeans have closed lower 6 of the last 7 sessions.

Today we should get the September NOPA crush report and the average is expected at 204 Mil Bu versus 198 Mil in September 2025. Oil stocks are estimated to have dropped to 1.1 bill pounds. That would be 143 Mil below last year and just fractionally above 2024’s low. Crush margins will remain well above year ago prices in the $2.40-2.60/Bu range.

Cattle Overview

Yesterday’s weakness in both live and feeder cattle carried through to the close, marking the 3rd consecutive session of giving back some of last week’s gains. Afternoon boxed beef values improved from the forenoon, with choice up $1.35 and select gaining $4.80 on 107 loads. This could help support cash cattle trade at steady to possibly higher prices this week. Packer margins have improved for 8 straight weeks, and they may be looking to step in and pick up some inventory. A few loads traded yesterday at $226, but not enough to establish a market test. Steady cash is the working thought this week.

Yesterday’s slaughter is put at 110,000 head, which is just 1,000 less than last week’s catch-up trade and 10,000 head less than a year ago. It’s been strange having gone a month and ½ without a negative beef story. The only one that could be pointed to would be that it’s Pork Month, and stores are pushing a heavy feature to move product.

The feeder index yesterday showed a slip of $0.05 to $341.42, with October coming down to park close to it. Despite the three-day correction in futures markets, half of last Friday’s gains on the board still remain.

December cattle have support at their breakout of the 100-day MA (exponential) at 224. Massive support is at 222. The market is consolidating its recent gains, with 227.60 a future target to be overcome.

November feeder cattle are now trading less volume and open interest than the January contract, and the continuation switchover will occur soon. Rising intraday support on the hourly charts shows support at 336 if further weakness develops yet today. In a friendly trading market, by Friday you typically see renewed buying interest into the weekend. Resistance remains at our major moving average on the continuation chart at 342, with measured move theory suggesting an attempt to 344. January feeders have support at 332.50, with significant trending support at 327 if trouble develops.

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