October 14, 2026

Grain Overview

After a sloppy overnight grain trade, soybeans caught a bid as soybean oil stabilized, helped by another strong crude oil market, with November crude up $1.70 at 95.85. Corn held near steady on slow reported harvest progress, while wheat has yet to find leadership from European values. Euronext continues its explosive breakout move overnight, with the November corn contract adding another €13.75 this morning and is trading at 302.75/MT.

Soybeans are taking support from the cash market, where quick-ship bids are again being seen right in the middle of harvest. Illinois processors firmed soybean bids 15 cents yesterday to gain ownership. Buyers are finding out once again that stocks and available stocks are not the same. Rain may disrupt harvest again later this week, providing additional cash market support.

This week’s Crop Progress report showed U.S. corn harvest advancing to 33%, up from 23% last week, while soybean harvest jumped to 46% from 25%. Iowa corn harvest moved up 7 percentage points to 14%, while Iowa soybean harvest surged from 5% to 31% over the past week. Even with that progress, Iowa soybean harvest remains 28 percentage points behind the five-year average, making Iowa one of the slowest states relative to normal harvest pace.

Rains later this week are not going to help as the week progresses, with wetter conditions expected across nearly the entire Corn Belt outside of North Dakota. Through Friday, much of Iowa is forecast to receive between one-half and one inch of rainfall, while most of the Eastern Corn Belt is expected to see at least an inch. The heaviest precipitation is forecast across Missouri and eastern Kansas, where localized totals of up to 2½ inches are possible.

As the controversy over Friday’s large corn yield continues, some of the chatter on Nebraska yields centers around the possibility of staffing issues in September when collecting the data due to all the retirement options that were taken earlier in the year. We will not likely get an answer from NASS over this, but the October yield guess had more potential irrigated sampling in it than September did.

Through yesterday, the estimated crop insurance harvest average pricing has corn now at $4.95, with soybeans at $12.88. The spring number for corn was 4.62, with soybeans at 11.09. Obviously, corn will continue to decline while soybeans have been holding up. Farmer selling off the combine of non-presold bushels is slowing as the crop heads to the bin. The cost of holding corn into May is roughly $0.24, and for soybeans, it is just $0.51. That is with storage and interest figured in.

The consolidation from Friday’s crop data has corn trading this morning at a $0.20 loss from pre-report levels, while soybeans reflect a $0.05 gain and wheat is down $0.17. Flash sales of soybeans to China and further flash sales on corn to other destinations are needed this week to stimulate further recovery. Corn is being held for now under the 200-day moving average at 485, which needs to be closed above with confidence to change directions, while soybeans continue to hold critical support at 1295 basis January.

Cattle Overview

Cattle futures are having a difficult time correcting last week’s gains, even with weekly slaughter at 216,000 head through yesterday, 4,000 above last week, and boxed beef drifting a bit. Packer margins have improved for 8 straight weeks since the plant closures announced in mid-August and are now estimated at a positive $156.32/head. Packers in the North appear willing to hold off on purchases, with plenty of cattle ready to move as we approach the end of October.

Yesterday’s afternoon boxed beef was a bit softer, with choice down $0.41 at $375.15, with select also slipping $0.46 to $353.67. There was good movement of 117 loads, with almost 90 loads of choice, 11 select, and just under 10 loads of ground beef, with the balance trim. Cash trade thoughts are that feedlots may be able to hold out for steady money this week.

The cash feeder trade out there continues to show improvement this week, and even the index from Monday showed a gain of $2.85, putting it at $341.47. October closed a dollar above that yesterday while exhibiting moderate weakness.

Yesterday marked two days of correction since Friday’s sharp gains, and settlements compared to last Friday reflect little giveback. December cattle remain hovering under resistance at 227.50-228, with support firmly under the market at the 100-day MA breakout at 224.

November feeder cattle have found short-term resistance at 342, with 344 being a measured move target. November feeder cattle are also stalled at the 220-day MA on the continuation chart, which has proven important in past movements, and that’s currently at just under 342 as well. The January feeder cattle contract comes on this chart later next week and is possibly targeting this 342 number as well. Support for November feeder cattle is very strong now on daily and intraday support in the 333-334 range if feeders do their volatile swing.

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