October 13, 2026
Grain Overview
Overnight trade was soft, but bids were found near yesterday’s lows in the grains, leading to a constructive recovery overnight. Social media is ablaze over USDA’s 181.2 BPA corn yield, with a large audience raising plenty of eyebrows following Friday’s 2.7 BPA increase, the largest October jump in 20 years. What’s hard to square is what USDA is telling us versus what farmers are actually seeing coming off the combine. USDA has Illinois and Nebraska yields down just 6 BPA from last year, yet some Illinois farmers are reporting losses of 20 to 40 BPA, while tar spot has taken 40 to 80 BPA off some Nebraska fields. Meanwhile, Iowa’s huge 219 BPA yield is doing much of the heavy lifting in the national estimate.
History gives us some reason to question the number. Of the last eight times USDA raised corn yields in October, it lowered them again in November five times. Most of those cuts were small, however, so while a reduction is certainly possible, a major correction would be unusual. That is reserved for the January “final yield” report. Overnight, November Euronext corn is within €1.00 of its September 2 contract high for the 5th time, with higher lows behind it. European corn is getting expensive, and US corn is the coming replacement.
Beans are chopping sideways in the range they’ve held for two weeks, with no conviction either way. The near-term lean is a touch heavy, as Brazil’s fast start and no China buying yesterday tilt prices lower absent a catalyst. Overnight, soybean oil is firmer for the 3rd day in a row, passing support to the crush, while meal takes a break after pushing to a new monthly high yesterday. A flash sale from China is needed this week for soybeans to overcome current harvest pressure and show that our exports still remain well above last year.
Russian wheat supplies continue to tighten, with both IKAR and SovEcon again lowering production and export estimates. October shipments are running just 2.5 to 3.0 MMT, with Black Sea loadings reportedly stalled. Meanwhile, Algeria and Egypt are building inventories as the war shows little sign of ending. Russia also rejected Trump’s latest ceasefire proposal over the weekend.
Wheat has a story for a rally in the coming months despite disappointing US demand. After a $1.35 break since September 1, the selling looks heavily overdone. With funds carrying a substantial short and Black Sea supplies tightening, it may not take much to spark a sharp rally.
Today is the last day of the Goldman Roll, which should relax spread trade. All USDA reports are delayed one day this week, so the weekly export loading report will be released mid-session. China is set to auction 518,000 metric tons of soybeans today to make room for US imports. CONAB will update its Brazil crop estimates tomorrow, including the first look at new crop balance sheets. The NOPA crush report will also be released in tomorrow’s session, providing the market with more data to trade.
Cattle Overview
A corrective trade developed yesterday in the cattle market, but it was not a surprise given the sharp gains the trade had seen through the end of last week. Southern negotiated cattle at 226 for the 5th week in a row, showlist numbers not increasing this week, and the rising feeder index to 338.62 kept the correction to a minimum.
Monday’s slaughter is estimated at 106,000 head, which would be 4,000 more than a week ago and 3,000 higher than a year ago. 79% of last week’s negotiated cash trade was committed to the nearby delivery option.
Feeder steers over 750 pounds are trading steady to $3 higher this week, and feeder steers are $10-$20 higher. This would be the early-week test out of Oklahoma City. The feeder index continues to vacillate in the upper 336-339 range. Yesterday’s index was at $338.62, a gain of $1.55. October feeder cattle have gone to a premium, and with yesterday’s correction, they still hold a $5.00 premium.
Today’s important numbers for December cattle have 227.50-228 as near-term resistance, while support comes in at the 100-day MA at 224. That’s a $4.00 range to grind.
November feeder cattle have a measured resistance number near 344.00, while its current close is right at the 220-day MA we utilize on the continuation chart. Support becomes yesterday’s low at 339, with the next major viable support value at 333-334.
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