October 12, 2026

Grain Overview

Grain futures have corn and wheat firmer this morning, as Euronext corn is up €3/MT at 276.25, within €3 of its contract high. Meanwhile, French milling wheat is showing a similar gain of €2/MT. The shortfall of the corn crop in Europe and displaced wheat buyers from the Black Sea are putting upward pressure on European grain values. US values are waiting for bids from these customers.

The softness in soybean prices this morning is largely a correction of Friday’s late surge in beans compared to corn following the USDA report. Heading into Friday, spread traders were leaning bearish on soybeans and more friendly on corn. When the report came out, those positions were caught on the wrong side of the market, prompting short covering in soybeans that pushed prices $0.23 higher in the final 45 minutes of trading. Overnight, some of that spread activity reversed, bringing soybean prices more in line with Friday’s USDA numbers, assuming those numbers have credibility. Adding to the pressure is concern that we need to start seeing flash sales of soybeans to China this week to confirm their buying commitments.

Friday’s report certainly burned more trust in how data is compiled, even with former USDA proponents. The biggest hangup that is being addressed by many analysts (and there are a few) is how the USDA could take Nebraska, an irrigated state, and claim an 11-bushel rebound in the October numbers due to September rainfall. Soybeans, yes, but on corn, that is a lot trickier unless they had earlier numbers way off. That adjustment represented a 1.2 BPA gain nationally for the report and was 25% of the 407 Mil Bu of corn that was found since September 30.

What happens now is that test plot data will be closely monitored, and obviously, basis values will come into play, reflecting farmer sales being restricted now to just pre-sold bushels, with the balance going into the bin. The November crop report may offer a slight adjustment, as the USDA still had 40% of its plots to be harvested. It’s the January crop report that provides what is supposed to be the final number, and last January, it was a bearish report.

The US harvest should advance this week after most areas avoided weekend hurricane rains. Midweek showers are expected in the Corn Belt, followed by warmer weather late in the month. Brazil’s planting is underway, with Mato Grosso officials forecasting a 5% decline in soybean production, potentially limiting exports.

Energy prices this morning have crude oil up over $1.00 a barrel near $93.00, while diesel fuel had a wide range as Pres. Trump has brokered a deal with Russia to sell diesel fuel into the open market and into the US. Diesel fuel/heating oil was down as much as $0.15 overnight but has cut that loss to just a nickel.

Today is a hangover session from Friday, with corn and wheat values roughly a dime above Friday’s lows, while soybeans are hovering a bit more than a dime above those lows. Large spikes on crop report days have a tendency of being lows or highs for a while. The surprise January crop low found its low the day after the report, which then started a 60-day rally that peaked in mid-March.

December corn needs a couple of closes above the 200-day MA at 484.4 to imply 470 is a significant low. January beans maintain strength above their 41-day exponential MA at 1295. Closing below that erodes confidence that China is buying beans. Wheat is the tail of the dog and looking for leadership from anything, with French milling wheat an important source of that encouragement.

Cattle Overview

Last week’s explosive cattle trade into Friday’s close got its late boost from the WASDE numbers, giving feeder cattle excitement, while expectations of better-than-expected cash cattle trading again sent the October contract exploding higher. There was some light trade in Texas negotiated cattle late Friday at 226, as reported by the Texas Cattle Feeders Association. The October contract has proven to be scared of its own shadow over the past few weeks. Given the sharp rise in October futures to near 225, we may see some deliveries executed.

Friday’s mixed results in boxed beef did see a large movement of 124 loads. Choice gave up $1.50 at $373.35, but select picked up the slack, gaining $2.57 to $343.30. Of the total, 83 loads were choice.

Live and feeder cattle prices went out with a bang on Friday, so further strength this morning could be challenging. Initial rally targets were achieved on Friday at 227.50 for December cattle, while November feeder cattle came within 1.50 of their measured target of 344. Meanwhile, March feeders did achieve the 332 value, which represents two equal wave-length rallies since the August low. In the short term, further strength could be laborious, and looking at LRP values for March feeder cattle would be advised.

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