October 9, 2026

Grain Overview

Grain futures found a temporary boost overnight when the Chinese Dalian grain exchange reopened after the holiday with a firm tone at 8 o’clock Chicago time, causing corn and bean values to push higher for an hour, but then retreat when no announcements or further price strength were maintained. The trade has now gone into the waiting game for our October WASDE/Crop Production Report due out at 11:00 today.

Most analysts heading into today’s report are playing it safe, even though crop ratings are the worst in 5 years after the constant crop problems that occurred, revealing deteriorating yield conditions since August 1. Correlation to prior years implies yields closer to 177 BPA or lower. There is always the fear the USDA will slow-roll the data into November, but promises from head USDA officials earlier this year that they are getting better at trying to adapt to more real-world conditions will be revealed today. Every state this year has some garden spots, but they also have large areas of disappointment. This pushes a national yield closer to the 10-year average of 176, not 177.8, the current estimate, which would make it the 3rd-largest-yield-producing crop in history.

The soybean trade is the wildcard, especially with China in the wings and back from holiday. In order to maintain their stated 25 MMT bean purchases through this calendar year, we need to start seeing active flash sales of almost 1 MMT per week for them to stay on track. Based on Pres. Trump’s off-the-cuff campaign trail comments earlier this week, it’s imperative we do see China step up on their commitment to Ag product purchases and see corn and possible wheat sales develop as well.

The wheat trade continues to flounder despite improving world values, which are now seeing an uptick in demand. Saudi Arabia made a large purchase of wheat early this week, and now Thailand is looking to book feed wheat. The trade will be watching how the USDA handles world carryout numbers today, as they are currently estimated at 276.6 MMTs. Smaller Russian and Ukrainian wheat crops could come into the mix for next year. US wheat sales are falling 32% behind last year, but there is plenty of time for sales to “catch up” versus projections, the trade awaits better numbers in what is a seasonally active time in October.

It’s a Friday harvest pressure weekend going into today’s data. Even a friendly report will have a hard time maintaining gains on the session in the last half hour (unless the report is surprisingly bullish), as active harvest selling off the combine will occur and weekend bookings will pressure the last 15 minutes. Today’s bottom line is, will new-crop corn carryout be pushed back toward 1.5 bill and soybeans at or below 300 Mil Bu, which are pipeline concerns? This becomes tight, especially if China follows through on trade deals made with the US, as they are under pressure with only a renewal of the current plan through January 10.

Cattle Overview

The cattle trade corrected for the 2nd day in a row since Tuesday’s extremely sharp gains, with live cattle again performing very well into the close. December cattle continued to attack recover near the 100-day MA near 224.25. There was some light cash trade yesterday it was reported steady-$2.00 lower while dressed purchases were either steady to $5.00 lower at 345 in Nebraska. In today’s WASDE data we will see some beef numbers that should reflect an increase in the import numbers adding to our domestic supply.

Thursday’s estimated slaughter was put at 101,000 head, which would be 8000 head less than a week ago and off 12,000 from last year. Boxed beef prices had choice off $0.77 at $with 374.5 while select did dip $2.48 at 351.73. It was big movement of 131 loads with 95 choice, 20 select, almost 11 loads of ground beef and the balance was trim.

The feeder index was off $1.14 yesterday at 336.73 as it continues to vacillate in the upper 330 range. October feeder cattle went out at $338.45.

Yesterday’s trade for December cattle in the futures market showed a minimal retreat from Tuesday sharp gains, and or above the pacifier number of 223.00. A Friday close above 224.25 would be friendly on the charts sending the market quickly to the next level resistance at 227. Meanwhile support continues to mirroring maintained at the gap near 219.00.

Feeder cattle had the November contract holding the support numbers that reference the break out above 333.00 and closed comfortably above those levels. No momentum has been damaged this week on November feeder cattle with our wide ranging measured move target to the upside of 338-344 having been tested but looks to get challenged again. Support is still 333 and then major support at 329.50-330.

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