Corn and beans show follow-through strength from yesterday's strong technical performance.

This morning’s grain trade enjoyed follow-through buying in the overnight session from yesterday’s technical strong reversal higher in soybeans. Corn’s close above technical resistance near 424 set it on the path to now challenge the 200-day moving average at 431. As the morning came and export sales were released, showing a strong 2 MMT of beans and corn exports at 2.77 MMT, a little profit-taking arrived on confirmation of that friendly data.

Cooler heads seem to be prevailing in the assessment of risk to trade and other demand that comes with a Trump election win. Chinese President Xi was quick to not only reiterate his desire to see the Chinese economy meet its growth targets this year by doing whatever it takes with fiscal policy, he also reached out to Trump with congratulations and well wishes relatively quickly. With Chinese economic data showing the country is on the right track to stabilizing the outlook and helping to foster growth, Xi is in a somewhat perilous position, knowing an escalation in China-US trade tensions is the last thing he or his economy needs. While it is far too early to say, early indications point to Trump bringing some incredibly bright minds into his cabinet, with whoever he appoints as Secretary of Agriculture likely to influence how the trade relationship with China looks as we move ahead.

Yesterday, rumors circulated that President-Elect Trump had tapped Kentucky Representative Thomas Massie as his Secretary of Agriculture, something Massie later denied. Massie, an entrepreneur turned farmer and US Representative lives off the grid when not in DC and got his start with the Tea Party movement in 2012. While rumors point towards Trump looking at Massie, Indiana farmer and former US Ambassador to the UN’s Agencies for Food and Agriculture, Kip Tom, is also said to be on the shortlist, with Texas’ Secretary of Agriculture also a possible choice.

There was a bit of a knee-jerk cash market reaction in soybeans yesterday, with Brazilian new crop bean basis firming. Traders have said that Chinese buyers are looking to get shipments in before the inauguration. However, the feeling of urgency may begin to subside if we see further signs that Xi and Trump are communicating ahead of Trump’s return to the Oval Office.

Cash grain basis is showing a seasonal recovery in the need to pull grain from farmers who have just completed their 2024 harvest. End-users want to secure cash grain to lock down profitable corn ethanol grind and soy crush margins into mid-December. Farmers are a little more tight-fisted at this time of year, and they are more agreeable to cash grain sales in a new tax year that starts on January 1.

It’s no surprise that in South America soaking rains continue to persist across the northern and central areas with a briefly drier trend for Argentina into November 16. Near to above-normal rain returns to Argentina/Southern Brazil in the 10-15 day period that ends November 22. No extreme heat is forecasted with Brazilian temperatures holding just below seasonal averages due to cloud cover with highs in the 80s to lower 90s.

A higher trade developed in live and feeder cattle futures Wednesday, but the markets did react off of early strength despite an exploding stock market. Negotiated fed cattle markets were at a standstill, with a light trade at $1 lower than the previous week at 189. Otherwise, feedlots in the South are asking 190-192 this week, but the Packers have yet to show much interest in trading. Cattle slaughter at midweek totaled 369,000 head, unchanged from the previous week and 5000 head fewer than a year ago. Meanwhile, box beef prices moved lower, with choice off $1.62 and select giving up $2.04.

Beef export demand in September was positive for only the third month since July 2022. Domestic demand remained strong, increasing 5% over a year ago after gaining 6% in August. The average retail beef price was slightly above last year's, while per capita beef disappearance was up 5%. December live cattle are above technical support, which is 182.50-183.25.