The World veg oil prices move on to new highs overnight.
This morning, grain markets are higher as hedge pressure turns to a minimum, especially with rains on the way throughout the Midwest, but new highs in world vegetable oil markets persist. Malaysian palm oil overnight gapped higher and surged 170 ringgits, settling at $0.52/pound, a new 2-year high. Soybean oil is falling along with canola and rapeseed. This strength has helped push spot January beans over $10.00 overnight, with a Friday close being watched as a technical recovery that could gain more.
This morning, the October nonfarm payrolls released showed a job increase of 12K versus the 100K estimate. Unemployment remained unchanged at 4.1%. The two hurricanes that hit Florida over the past month were to blame for the soft numbers. The US dollar retreated to under 104, as the currency appears to be stalling from its recent recovery rally.
Wheat futures are firmer this morning, with French milling wheat trading near 220/MT as Algeria’s purchase of 480,000 MTs this week shows Russian exporters are honoring the government’s recommended floor price. Algeria secured cheaper European and Ukrainian-origin pricing, further suggesting Russia's share of the world trade will start to erode from December forward. Global offers this morning are unchanged, as Argentine and Australian wheat will begin to arrive in under 30 days.
Rains continue in South America, with the weather forecast in Mato Grosso and Goias in N Brazil. It’s also wetter in Buenos Aires in Argentina. Consistent showers look to impact Argentina, Paraguay, and S Brazil November 2-5.
In the US, it looks to be a bit wetter in TX/OK panhandles and parts of W KS. Soaking rainfall in the E Plains/Midwest this weekend and early next week will still leave winter wheat concerns for NE, SD, and MT.
Cattle futures were sharply lower on Thursday but recovered late in the trade to close with moderate losses. Meanwhile, October cattle traded in a large $ 8.25 range with low open interest but expired at $193 versus $183.75 a year ago. October feeder cattle rallied $1 to expire at $251.97 versus $239.72 last year. There was some light cash trade on Thursday, following active trade on Wednesday, with similar prices. Live sales in the South remained at $190, while light trade in the North was a little lower at $296-298.
Box beef continues its correction, with Choice down $1.84 and Select falling $3.95. A seasonal rally in beef prices got underway several weeks ahead of normal, and it appears that an early seasonal peak is starting to form. The live cattle trade is working into a phase where rallies are sold rather than pursued in pricing. The resistance on December cattle is 187.60-188.00. The cash trade will likely start to soften next week as the board is trying to imply a weakening of trade into November.