A sharp break in crude oil overnight weekend grain prices.

The reopening of the Sunday night markets had crude oil collapsing, dropping $4.50 overnight, as Israel had hit Iranian targets but did not harm any of the oil infrastructure. This had crude all incomplete premium liquidation, causing a sharply lower opening for soybeans, followed by weakness in the grains. The overnight trade found wheat recovering to unchanged while corn had moderate losses. Soybean oil dropped well over $1.23/pound, dragging soybeans softer on the session, with November beans hovering around 980.

In today’s USDA crop progress reports, it's expected that 78-82% of the corn is done, with soybeans over 90%. Winter wheat seeding is also anticipated in the 84-86% range. This afternoon, we also see the first winter wheat crop ratings, with the national GD/EX rating in the 47-50% range, which is near average.

The forecast for the Central Midwest is trending wetter, with hopeful rainfall totals of 1-2″ in the TX/OK Panhandle this weekend. The seven-day precipitation forecast blankets the E Plains, MO, IA, IL, WI, and MI with cumulative totals of 2-4″. This will aid newly planted wheat crops and ease some of the longer-term moisture deficits.

In South America, additional rainfall of .20-.50″ was recorded in Goias and Mina Gerais in central Brazil on Sunday, which follows regional precipitation of 1-2″ in Mato Grosso on Friday/Saturday.

Live and feeder cattle futures were higher last week, and this morning, a firm outlook is offered for live cattle. The October Cattle on Feed report did not provide any surprises other than placements being 2% higher than expected. Last week’s negotiated fed cattle price was higher for the fifth week in a row, with live sales in the north $2 higher at $190 and dressed sales increased $2 to $298. Live sales in the South all sold $2 higher at $190. Box beef values had choice gaining $1.59, which was led by a $26/CWT gain in the choice rib primal, which added $3 to the wholesale carcass value. Seasonally, the rib primal tends to rally into early December and could gain another $30-50/CWT.

Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed for the week ending October 22, funds bought 4,662 live cattle contracts against commercial selling of 4,318 contracts. Funds have bought 52,000 contracts in the last five weeks, the most since November 2019 and the third-largest volume on record. Commercials have sold 47,000 contracts, the most since February 2021. Nearby futures are now up against long-term resistance near $190 while index funds ownership is approaching 100,000 contracts.