China woes soften grain overnight.

The overnight grain trade was firm primarily for corn and soybeans as it saw follow-through buying from the big Thursday reversal higher into the close. Gold, silver, and gold are higher this morning, with gold making new all-time highs. Last night, China’s economic report showed the slowest growth since early 2023, again calling for additional economic growth. Their GDO was just 4.6% from July through September, which spurred the Peoples Bank of China to disclose more details of measures to boost the capital markets minutes after the disappointing GDP data was released. China's stock market pushed higher in the overnight session.

Export sales data out this morning had strong numbers, with corn seeing exports of 2.23 MMTs, while soybeans had 1.7 MMTs of new crop exported. This is a harvest Friday, with corn harvest now being the focus. What can’t be ignored in this week’s action is the continual bull spreading (spot contract stronger than deferred’ s) prevalent in both corn and soybeans. It’ll be an interesting Friday close if settlements maintain gains over yesterday’s closes, implying strong end-user demand pricing into the gut slot of harvest.

Russia and other BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China, etc.) members are considering a grain exchange that would give them more control over grain pricing. BRIC nations will meet next week to discuss new trade relations, including a grain and currency exchange. It’s doubtful that a new BRIC grain exchange will be occurring anytime soon. Still, with the tensions between China and the US challenging their roles over the globalization of the world economy, it will stay on track to an eventual reality.

Brazilian farmers are reportedly pushing ahead with their spring row crop seeding, with favorable South American forecasts and near-to-above-normal rainfall for Northern Brazil and Argentina.

It has been relatively quiet in the Black Sea. The trade is watching Russia work to up their wheat export price floor, effectively taking themselves out of the market after a reduced crop and stout early-season exports sent domestic prices soaring. While we have not seen an absence in Russian wheat offers to impact the markets yet, we are starting to see signs of strength in cash that could carry over into the New Year, especially if farmer selling worldwide remains slow. There has been a slight increase in freight rates out of Ukraine after Russia launched a series of attacks on port infrastructure and cargo ships. This, combined with some quality issues and a smaller crop size, has also recently pushed Ukrainian corn out of the market for many importers.

Yesterday's close was mixed in live and feeder cattle trade. December cattle finished lower but are uncovering support at $185.00 for now. The cash feeder Index gained $0.80 to a 10-week high of $250.25, but the board lacks excitement as feeder cattle runs pick up towards the end of the month. Cash trade on Thursday quoted steady $1 higher in the South at $187-188. Dressed sales in the north were steady, with $296 last week. Compared to a year ago, live prices in the South are $3 higher, while dressed sales in the North are up $2.

The rally in box beef prices slowed on Thursday, but values were still slightly higher. The choice picked up $0.13 at $319.26 while the select moved higher by $1.15, trading at $293.52. Choice values had forged an early seasonal low in late September and are now $23/CWT over the low and compared to a year ago, choice beef is $14/CWT higher. This year’s rally kicked in two weeks earlier than normal and typically makes a seasonal high in the last half of November. Yesterday’s chart action was sour, given that cattle have typically snapped higher after a 3-4 day correction, so today’s close is critical. It needs to be higher, or topping action will become evident tomorrow in the marketplace.