Argentine wheat crop lowered.

The grain trade overnight was mainly firm, led by the wheat trade, as dry conditions remained for Western Russia and the Western plains in the US. The weather premium is being added via French milling wheat, which picked up $3/MT overnight. Russian 12.5%/wheat is at $, with 232/MT up $1/MT today.
Wheat prices also strengthened in the evening as the Rosario Commodity Exchange lowered its 2025 wheat production by 1 MMT, or 5%, to 19.5 MMTs from 20.5 MMTs due to excessive dryness across Córdoba and Santa Fe. This decline has occurred following weeks of dryness. Weakness returned to soybeans in the morning due to the chances of impending rain this weekend.

Brazilian President Lula signed the Future of Brazilian Fuel Law, which will gradually increase the amount of soil being blended to produce Brazil’s diesel fuel. Starting in 2025, the percentage of soy oil and Brazil’s diesel fuel will rise by 1% to 15% and increase by 1% in subsequent years until it reaches 20% in 2030. This increase is essential as it will boost Brazil’s crush capacity and provide an avenue to build local soybean/soy demand.

Brazil’s weather forecasts suggest a return to normal/above-normal rainfall in the coming weeks. The monsoon has started, with thunderstorms darting Mato Grosso, Paraná, and Mato Grosso do Sul overnight. The forecast turns wet for the next two weeks, and once the monsoon starts, there is often continuous rainfall potential across Brazil into February.

The forecast for the Central US remains below normal precipitation. A few showers are possible across the S Plains October 20-24, but otherwise, a pattern of dryness is extended into late October. Strong hints in modeling indicate improved Plains and W Midwest rainfall returns in the 11-15 day window, with the EU AI model forecast being the wettest.

Live and feeder cattle futures softened on Wednesday but have a steady outlook for today’s early trade. The summer live cattle touched resistance again at $188 and faded, but the deep deferred contracts led to Wednesday’s losses. The deferred weakness in cattle and steady corn prices put feeder cattle futures under pressure after touching important resistance at 250.

The negotiated Fed cattle markets remain quiet, but a small number of trades was reported in Iowa, offering $186-187, which was steady with last week. Cattle slaughter at midweek total 359,000 head, down 8000 from last week and 18,000 head less than a year ago. Boxed beef values yesterday had a choice to gain $1 and select picked up two cents. Both values are at record levels for early October. Yesterday’s trade is tied mainly to technicals, with live cattle hitting trend line resistance from prior peaks since the September 2023 high. Feeder cattle had technical resistance just above 250. The board will be reluctant to climb through and need encouragement from the cash trade. A pause in October is not uncommon and seasonal.