September WASDE crop production report out at 11:00

This morning’s grain trade is higher across the board, as word of a ship the Black Sea was hit by a Russian missile strike, lifting wheat and corn. Soybeans firmed as CONAB stayed with their soybean estimate near 147.4 MMTs in the corn crop at 115.7 MMTs, still well below the USDA and not budging.

Today at 11 o’clock, we will get a look at the September WASDE crop production report, which has soybean yield guesses at 53.2 BPA, while the corn yield is slightly softer than last month at 182.7 BPA. The new crop corn stocks are forecasted to come in just above two, 009 Mil Bu, down 64 Mil from August, with soybean stocks likely rising 24 Mil to 584 Mil Bu. The USDA will not update wheat production until the final Small Grains report on September 30, which includes the totals of the September 1 row crop stocks.

Due to the record or near-record dryness since late August, traders are conscious that US corn and soybean yields could likely be lower still in October. The drought is even affecting the drafting of the Mississippi River. Soybean seed size will be reduced due to the flash drought that appeared across the Central and Eastern Midwest over the past 30+ days.

The Rosario Grain Exchange estimated that Argentine farmers will plant 21% less corn due to corn stunt disease, which is spread by leafhoppers, while soybean seedings could surge by 7.5% to 17.7 million hectares. If trendline yields are achieved the exchange put the 2025 Argentine corn production at 5 one-five to MMTs and soybean production at 52-53 MMTs. The catch is, due to the rapidly advancing La Niña, drought is forecasted to produce a yield that is well below the trendline.

Today’s flash numbers that would create a bullish event are a corn yield of 181.5 BPA and a soybean yield under 52.5 BPA. A new crop corn carryout under 2 Bil Bu would also catch the markets' attention.

Hurricane Francine roared ashore as a category 2 hurricane late Wednesday with strong storm surges and winds of 90 mph and a soaking rainfall of 4-8.00″. Francine is now a tropical depression with its core over the LA/MS border. The depression will push to the north as far as West TN by midday Friday. The tropical depression is not forecasted to reach S IL, with the turn to produce heavy rainfall of 2.5-6.00″ across the SE US over the weekend. Lodging of crops will develop across SE US with rain accumulations of over 8.00″.

Live cattle and feeder cattle moved higher Wednesday, with a firm outlook offered this morning as risk-on hit the commodity complexes and equities, lifting cattle. Feeder cattle marked the best gains, with the nearby contracts more than $2 higher. Live sales in Iowa were reported steady at $182, and dressed sales have been $2-4 higher at $289-291. Kansas had some trade around steady at $180-181. Meaningful trade volumes should start to develop today.

The September Consumer Price report showed that average retail beef prices in August rose 1% from July to a record high of $8.52/pounds. This price was 3.5% higher than a year ago, marking the most significant year-over-year increase in four months. The repro price has marked year-over-year gains in 16 of the last 17 months, while domestic demand has been unchanged or higher in 12 of the previous 15 months. With discounts still present in the October live cattle, look for a broad trading range to continue to play out in the coming weeks, with live cattle capped in the 180-182 range while support arrives at 173.50-174.50.