Soybeans push another new contract low overnight.

Today’s grain trade is softer for corn, with soybeans continuing to make new lows after yesterday’s August crop production WASDE report. The NASS substantially defined US 2024 corn, wheat, and soybean planted/harvested area including the FSA Farm Program participation data. Some still anticipate more cuts for corn of nearly 200,000 acres with limited change in soybean harvest acres following yesterday's data. The next adjustment will be in October after harvest weather will have a determination on that. From here forward the market is about yield and export demand.

Something that will now develop since yesterday’s report is that there will be a further narrowing of the soybean/grain spreads with the spot ratio at 2.54:1 following the loss of 900,000 acres of corn seeding and finding one Mil extra acres of soybeans. If November soybean futures reach $9.50, it would push the top end of price levels witnessed when the US held a trade war against China with rising tariff levels in soybean ending stocks that were above 1000 Mil Bu. Yesterday, WASDE put the 2020/25 soybean stocks at 565 Mil Bu with an upward bias on tepid new crop sales.

It’s now anticipated that Brazilian farmers will endure losses on their upcoming new soybean crop, and that will it cause Brazilian farmers to pullback on expanded acres due to negative margins. Chinese import demand ends 2023/24 at a record 111.5 MMTs, and the question remains: will their old crop demand persist into 2020/25? The seedings data added bearish elements to soybean trading that requires South American weather difficulties and the prospects of reduced acreage to improve over the winter.

The Chinese have been enduring adverse weather in many of their growing areas. China has now pledged $14 billion in funding from its Central Bank on an estimated 6 Million acres of farmland that has been acutely damaged by severe weather. Some private sources expect the acreage losses closer to 10 Million acres. This could help improve the demand from China over the winter, especially for corn.

Ridge-riding storms should produce rain and storms across the W and N Midwest in the next three days. A drier trend follows for the weekend and early next week. A high-pressure system shows a jet stream northward after the storms to produce near-to-above-normal temperatures and a drier Midwest weather forecast. Plains high temperatures return to the 90s and lower 100s, while Midwest highs hold the mid-80s to mid-90s.

Live and feeder cattle futures closed lower on Monday, with a steady outlook offered today. Live cattle consolidated their sharp Friday gains with weakness in deferred live cattle along with strength in the corn weighed on the feeder cattle trade. Yesterday, the cash feeder index showed a large drop of $4.14 to $245.57. Dressed steers last week had seen a wider weekly range with sharply mixed prices. Formula sales were unchanged for the week at $305, forward contracted sales were up $4, and negotiated grid sales were down $2. Negotiated sales fell $6.

Yesterday, box beef values jumped higher as seasonal demand started to build for the Labor Day weekend. The choice cutout was up $3, while select picked up $2 higher. October cattle have stalled against the 100 and 200-day moving averages on Monday, and it will take closes above $182 to give the bulls of victory line the crossover.