Soybeans are firmer on further hints of Chinese buying interest.

This morning, we have a mixed to higher grain trade, with soybeans leading the strength. Rumors abound that China is again in the marketplace for beans ahead of the WASDE August 12 crop report. Yesterday, StoneX released the first, with its corn yield at 182.3 BPA and soybeans at 52.6 BPA. They did not make any adjustments for row crop planted acres, which is what NASS will do in the August 12 report.

NASS indicated that 495 Mil Bu of corn was used to produce ethanol and other uses during June 2024, up 1% from last year. The US crushed 184 Mil Bu of soybeans in June, a record and up 9 Mil Bu from the year prior. US June soy oil stocks fell to 1,681 Mil pounds, down from May’s 1,734 Mil pounds in last year’s 1,770 Mil. US soybean oil stocks are forecasted to decline into September.

Paris wheat futures this morning are steady/firm, while Russian FOB September wheat is ending the week steady at $223. Wheat is steady but has softened overnight from its highs. The French crop ratings were held steady at 50% good/excellent, with harvest pushing ahead to 67%. Traders were expecting another 1-2% decline due to ongoing reports of poor crop quality.

Dow futures are sharply lower again this morning, off 450 points at 4050 with a weak jobs report. Estimates for job build was 180 5K and came in at 114 K. Unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. This has the US dollar down $0.78 at 103.42 at 7:45 this morning. Odds are now 50% that a potential half percent interest rate decline could occur at the September Federal Reserve meeting. A weakening dollar will be helpful for exporting commodities.

Midwest weather forecasts are struggling with a tropical storm that is positioned across Haiti and Dominican Republic this morning. The storm is giving a greater than 60% chance of developing into a hurricane, which would attract northwesterly across Cuba and emerge to rate the western coast of the Florida Peninsula. The GFS and European models progress the tropical storm northeast across Northern Florida and back into the Atlantic. The developing tropical storm is much farther east than yesterday, and the forecast remains complicated. Central US weather is being sorted out warm to hot and dry weather for most of the Central US, this is excluding the Northern Lake States and the Northern plains, where Ridge riding storms will persist. A high-pressure ridge will hold across the Plains and the Intermountain West and reform back across the Delta and the Midwest in the 7-9 day window. Rain prospects have left the Midwest for the next 10 days and will be concentrated in North Dakota/South Dakota/Minnesota/Wisconsin and Northern Iowa.

Live and feeder cattle futures tumbled sharply lower on Thursday and have a softer outlook again this morning following losses in the stock market and fears of a recession with demand already slowing for beef. The cash feeder Index was off $0.87 at $257.82, with all feeder futures now well under the indexes as of Thursday’s close. Box beef remains under pressure, with Choice losing $1.98 and Select off $2.70. Cash traded Thursday at $188 in the South, which was $2 lower for the week. Live trade in the north was around steady at $196-198 while dressed sales were quoted steady-$2 lower at $310-312.

October live cattle are now under the 50-day moving average, while the 100- and 200-day moving averages rest at $181-$182. Today's lighter August Jobs Report is a sign that demand will be softening.