The grain trade is retreating from last week's strength.

After putting on gains last week across the board, the grain trade is in a sharp retreat to restart the four-week trading. The remnants of Hurricane Beryl are passing to the Delta and Eastern Midwest, providing renewed pressure. Also, the EU model weather forecast has less heat for the Central US compared to late last week, with US corn and soybean crop condition ratings expected to hold steady or show a gain of 1% in the good/excellent category. After nonstop dry last week in soybean oil picking up six cents a pound, hereto, bean oil is in slight retreat.

Russian winter wheat yields are in decline as the harvest pushes north, and drought impacts crops that are becoming worthy. The range of Russian total wheat is 78-83 MMTs, depending on the spring wheat weather conditions. Extreme heat and dryness are overcoming the Black Sea crops with high temperatures ranging in the mid-90s to lower 100s. Limited rain is forecasted over the next 10-14 days, and the spring wheat and corn crops will be affected. Export potential out of the Black Sea is in decline, so traders need to balance out smaller harvests with the world grain trade flows.

The July WASDE crop report is this Friday, and a tradable low should be produced early this week. Meanwhile, heat and dryness are forecasted for the Plains and W Midwest after July 16. Algeria has returned to tender for some soft milling wheat in 2 ports for September and October. The Algerian tender follows the recent surgeon demand for world wheat importers due to the FOB prices returning to late April levels.

Hurricane Beryl came ashore as a category 1 hurricane at Matagorda, Texas, early this morning. It will continue to move inland with strong winds, flooding rains, and a modest storm surge of 3-6.00″. The remains of the hurricane will be the primary weather feature for the Central US this week as the system moves NE from SE Texas into NC Ohio. Rain will drop along the pathway of the hurricane, with the heaviest rains of 1.50-4.50″ from SE Texas into SE Missouri before the storm wanes in intensity as it moves farther north.

The GFS/Canadian models offer the return of heat to the Central US, while the EU model produces less heat. Record weekend heat will move across the western US, and the trend for above-normal temperatures that have prevailed since mid-May will continue.

Cattle moved higher last week but closed significantly off intraday highs on Friday. The cash feeder Index was down $3.50 for the week and $255, while 750-800 pound steers in Oklahoma City sold $3.65 higher at a record $266. Negotiated fed cattle trade held off until the end of the week and was steady to higher prices quoted in all regions. Live trade in the north was $198-200, which was steady-$2.00 higher, while the dressed trade was steady-$1 higher at $314-315. Live sales in the South were steady for the week at $190. Box beef values were higher at the end of the week, with the choice cutout gaining $4.11, the highest level since last July. It was still $0.56 higher on Friday in the first half of the week. Cattle numbers are tight, but with heavy weights and seasonal demand retraction, box beef prices are anticipated to peak soon.