The grain trade turns higher to end the week.

As we head for the weekend, this morning's grain trade is classic, friendly trading mode style. Peak early in the week, decline during the week, and then lift on Friday. This morning’s rally comes from Russian wheat showers, which were disappointing overnight, with extreme heat next week and temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev offered that Russian wheat exports of 60 MMTs of grain in the 2024/25 season would be the expected outcome currently, which is down from 70 MMTs last year, which held a record 53 MMT of wheat. Interior Russian wheat prices continue to rise.

61% of the French wheat crop is rated good/excellent, down 2% from last week due to cool/wet weather conditions. This is the lowest French wheat rating since 2020, when excessive rainfall hampered the crop. French farmers have 85% of their corn crop, well below the five-year average of 98%. Some French farmers look to be abandoning corn seeding ideas amid the tardy seeding date. Cool/wet weather is forecasted ahead before some moderations and rains.

China’s June PMI index fell to 49.5%, reflecting a larger-than-expected decline in manufacturing activity. Chinese housing values continued to retreat, though the pace of decline has slowed. The ongoing heat/dryness in Mongolia and Chinese crop areas adds to the potential economic difficulties.

It’s not US grain production that is currently on the decline. It is in world production areas and continues to garner attention. This includes rectifying the large disparity between WASDE and South American countries' assessments of their production this past spring. Range trading is becoming the potential for crops for the next few weeks, with July/August weather critical for the first chance of corn yields above 178 Bu/acre, as trendline yields have been missed for the past five years.

Rain for the Plains through Monday will be experienced, with rain for the Midwest offering shower chances through next week, and a drier weather trend follows. A dry forecast we welcome, with soil moisture at its best level since 2019. No extreme heat is offered in the Central US, with highs ranging in the 70s to lower 90s. The mean position of the high-pressure Ridge is across the Intermountain West, which creates eight NW upper airflow through the Central US and below normal rainfall. No sustained central US high-pressure Ridge is forecasted.

Live and feeder cattle futures were lower in Thursday’s trade, but August live cattle did maintain support against the 200-day moving average, while August feeder cattle found support just above their 50-day MA. The cash trade was quoted at $186 in the South, which was $1 lower, while the dressed trade in Iowa was quoted from $298-305, ranging from $3 lower to $2 higher from last week. More trade is likely to develop today, but the slightly lower tone for the week seems to be in play. Box beef prices held firm through Thursday, with the choice cutout value rising by .42 cents and selection off four cents.

The Actual Slaughter report, with data for the week ending May 18, showed that the average steer carcass weight was down 2 pounds for the week at 921 pounds. The average heifer weight was 1 pound lighter at 847 pounds. The steer weight was still 36 pounds heavier than a year ago, and the heifer weight was up 29 pounds. Both were record weights for mid-May.