Grain prices moved higher overnight led by wheat.

Grain prices opened higher last night and pushed higher on world weather concerns and political tensions. The Black Sea drought continues to become initial while historical flooding across Río Grande do Sul in southern Brazil and excessive rainfall in the Central US have traders' attention. Gold surged to new all-time highs again overnight, with silver pushing to its highest price in 2013 on political concerns as Ukraine may have used US missiles in attack for the first time on Russia, along with drone attacks on Ukraine’s Russian grain exports in Nova could escalate the fighting.

With gold and copper hitting new record highs, it’s suggested that commodity investors realise lingering inflation remains and are looking for cheaper commodities to buy. Grain remains the cheapest commodity; it has not participated in a large rally since the beginning of the year.
In Russia, private analysts are now dropping the all-wheat crop estimate to 82-84 MMTs, with the prospect that it could be as small as 78-80 MMTs if a black sea weather pattern is not changed by June 10. Meanwhile, too much rain slows the Russian spring wheat seeding campaign and can harm EU small grain crop quality if the pattern persists. The SW Russia and Ukraine drought wheat crop estimates are in a fast retreat.

Soybeans continued to gain support on old crop pricing as South American soy premiums continued to advance. Brazil’s Paranaqua Court offered July soybeans at $0.60 over compared to US Gulf soybeans at 55-57 over. Brazilian June soy oil is trading at 1.5 cents under versus US Gulf at .5 of Ascent under. Meanwhile, Argentina's FOB soybean meal basis has gained to $15 over for June. From July forward, the US has quickly become competitive in the soybean export market.

World weather has the market's attention in the Black Sea, including Australia and China, which also have developing dryness. Minimal rainfall is expected in Ukraine or Russia over the next 10 days when pushing back in the W Russia as a high-pressure Ridge forms. Meanwhile, the Central US forecast remains wet across the E plane/Midwest/Delta with variable temperatures. An active weather pattern will persist with a series of storm systems producing heavy rain across AR/MO into the E Plains and the Western and Northern Midwest. There will be seeding chances in the E Midwest around showers early this week. 10-day rainfall totals are estimated in the 1.25-4.50″ range, with heavier amounts locally.

Seeding progress estimates are for corn in the 70-73% range, with soybeans at 47-49% through Sunday. They are both slightly behind historical averages, but the seeding pace will slow this weekend's progress and could push producers to consider Prevent Plant optionally this month. 2024 is developing as a late-planted year, which becomes crucial during the reproductive stages of July and August.

Live and feeder cattle futures were strong last week, and a firm outlook is anticipated this morning. Last week’s negotiated Fed cattle trade developed at higher prices in all regions, with the north quoted at $190, which was $4 higher for the week, and the dressed trade at $we hundred, which was up $5.00. Top prices of $192 were reported in the IA/MN region. Meanwhile, live trade in the South was $186, quoted at $2 higher. Cattle slaughter last week was 598,000, down 3.7% for the week and 6.6% less than a year ago. But the production was just 2.6% less than a year ago, the carcass weights being 35 pounds heavier at 850 pounds. Boxed beef values rallied to solid gains of $1 nine on the choice cutout and $134 select.

June cattle are now above all major moving averages, and fund buying could still push prices to test the March highs and close the open chart. Still, at the 179-182 range in August live cattle, represent good hedging value for summer cattle. Boxed beef prices are likely peaking presently, with Memorial Day weekend demand typically producing the top in boxed beef prices.