A string of crop reports are out today.

Corn reached another new low overnight, trading at the lowest level since December 2020. Traders have priced in a bearish WASDE, with funds record short in February. The CONAB Report (Brazil) data boosted row crop prices this morning, showing a 23/24 Brazilian total corn production cut to 113.69 MMT from 117.603 MMT. Brazilian soybean production estimates dropped to 149.403 MMT from 155.269 MMT in the prior report. This means the Brazilian soybean crop is no longer a record, according to Brazil’s CONAB.

In the CONAB numbers, the Matto Grosso soybean crop was put at 38.6 MMTs, down seven MMTs, down 15% from last year. The Paraná soybean crop was pegged at 19.4 MMTs, off three MMTs, which is 13% lower than last year. Except for RGDS, every provincial soybean crop estimate was lowered in Brazil. Brazil has lowered its production by 500 million Bu, 13.6 MMTs since the start of the growing season.

The Brazilian corn crop is now down 13.3 MMT from the USDA’s January forecast and is at 113.7 MMTs. The impact of a 113.7 MMT corn crop would cut Brazil’s corn exports from the USDA’s 54 MMTs to 42-43 MMTs, a significant 11-12 MMTs, which gets added back to other world exporters, which includes the US.

The February WASDE Report is at 11:00 AM, with small changes expected to the US balance sheet. Analysts expect a raise in the Argy bean crop and a cut to the Brazilian.

The January CPI for China was down .8%, with food prices dropping 5.9%, which was tied to the freefall of pork prices ahead of the Lunar New Year Holiday. China is in a deflationary mode, and a strong government economic stimulus response is expected to prevent deflationary consumer expectations moving forward.

Rain is starting to fall this morning in Northern Buenos Aires in southern Córdoba following another day of extreme heat. Over the past two weeks, extreme heat has occurred across Argentina, and many have expected that the top of the corn and soybean yield potential crop has been removed. The exact amount of damage will take weeks to know. Argentine rain is at the start of a wet five-day window in which most of the property will receive rains of anywhere from 1.50-4.00”. The rain will stabilize crop yield potential following three weeks of acute dryness. Temps will hold out at above-normal levels in the mid-80s-mid-90s through the 10-day window.

Live and feeder cattle prices were setback yesterday, and Tuesday’s strong gains were consolidated. Meanwhile, cash markets were untraded. Asking prices in the South are quoted at $182, which is $2 higher for the week, while dress bids in the North were quoted at $280 or steady the week before. The outlook is at least for steady trade with likely $1-2 higher pricing. Cattle slaughter is off 3000 head from last week, coming in at 376,000 head, and is 9000 head over a year ago. Meanwhile, box beef prices had a choice of $0.91 while select gained $0.82.