October 23, 2026

Grain Overview

The grain trade is mixed ahead of the weekend, with soybeans holding in the green as the market wonders, can we make it 8? Yesterday marked the 7th straight day of USDA flash sales, and export sales were on fire! Both corn and soybeans hit marketing year highs, with soybean sales reaching a massive 104.4 Mil Bu, the largest weekly total since November 2023. Sales are running over 80% above last year, the strongest pace since 2022.

Corn finally delivered the big export sales number the market has been waiting for all fall, reaching 60.1 Mil Bu, 1 Mil above the top end of trade expectations. But with sales still running approximately 33% behind last year, we need a string of strong weeks to close the gap.

Next Monday, we should see corn harvest progress over 50% and bean harvest over 80% (or more). The weather looks wide open through the first of next week, at least for Iowa and east. The weather maps look hot and wet for everyone from the middle of next week through November 5th. Meanwhile, rains favor TX/OK. With rains in the forecast for KS and TX/OK, fall emergence is looking better for those areas by November 1. The selling pressure in KC wheat continues because of this until we find renewed buying interest with Black Sea wheat movement not occurring through the end of the year.

The estimated Crop Insurance Harvest average price today has corn at $4.84 versus spring at $4.62. Soybeans are $12.75 versus the spring average of $11.09.

Concern is rightly building with the super El Niño and production in northern Brazil. It always rains in these tropical latitudes, but the question is, does it rain enough? They have porous soils, and with temperatures typically in the 85-95 range, they need 2 inches or more a week. This means it comes down to whether the rains in Mato Grosso and surrounding states are above or below average over the next 2 months.

Here’s an interesting observation. The bears were touting that soybeans don’t spend much time above $12.00 in August. Not only have we been 60 days above 12.00, but we also have almost 80% of this year’s soybean crop harvested and mostly sold. If they can’t get January beans under the continuation chart breakout of 12.40 by November 1, apparently, we could be going a lot higher. How does a likely larger soybean yield from the USDA on November 10 fit into this?

Cattle Overview

Cattle futures pulled back yesterday after an explosive early-week rally pushed live cattle to 232.45 and January feeders just above 348. The correction comes ahead of this afternoon’s Cattle on Feed report, with traders focused on another sharp decline in placements, estimated at 91.7-92.7% of last year. Anything above 94% could bring renewed selling on Monday.

Yesterday’s NASS Livestock Slaughter report showed that beef production fell in September to 2.04 billion pounds, which was off 6% from last year, in line with the recent rally seen during that month. Yesterday’s boxed beef prices were weaker in the afternoon than in the morning, but movement was a strong 123 loads. Choice was off $2.12 at $369.70, while select gave up $4.93 at $350.41. There were 78 loads of choice, 23 select, and the balance was ground beef.

Bids showed up in Kansas yesterday at 228, but nobody took them. Meanwhile, offers remain at 232 in Texas and 360 dressed in Nebraska. Slaughter for yesterday was estimated at 103,000 head, which is 1,000 head less than last week and 17,000 fewer than a year ago.

Roughly, the COF report is expecting 100% on feed, 92% placements, and 93% marketings.

December cattle have major resistance on this leg up at 232-233, with support at 227.50-228. Anticipate cattle are near the end of this exciting rally for a while here, and that even a friendly report could create a high on Monday, with a drift into the opening of November.

January feeders have major resistance on any further strength at 348-351. March feeder cattle are overextended on any move above 343-345. These areas are all major sell points which have been revealed on charts. January feeders have support on further weakness at 340, with major support at 335.

Be careful as this rally is potentially going to stall for a while with protection needed. Even if a friendly report is revealed, it is at risk after Monday’s trade.

Any Questions and to inquire about Livestock Risk Protection Insurance Call: 701-222-0221