October 16, 2026

Grain Overview

Thursday’s soft close carried right into the overnight session as seasonal hedge pressure continues to build. Managed money is showing little interest in commodities, even with the US dollar down more than 1% from Wednesday’s high. Without much fresh news to stir up buying interest, the grain trade continues to drift lower.

Ukraine said yesterday it will continue attacking Russian energy facilities, but even that failed to attract risk buyers. Fighting between Ukraine and Russia has escalated, with commercial vessels now being targeted. Importers continue to buy mostly hand to mouth, even as cash grain prices remain high compared to weaker futures. High freight costs are another problem, with buyers hoping transportation expenses will come down before stepping up purchases.

Harvest pressure (despite rain) is starting to weigh more heavily on US grain prices, even though basis levels remain firmer than usual. Farmers are reluctant to add to earlier sales at these lower futures prices, which is helping support the cash market. We’re also hearing more about the wide variation in US yields, with overly dry corn becoming a bigger topic. Talk of fungus and mold in new-crop corn has quieted somewhat, but the problems haven’t gone away in several areas.

Euronext corn rallied €30.00/MT through Wednesday this week, closing at €303.00, a 4-year high. The market has since given back €7.00 over the past 2 days, but it’s still holding a gain of nearly $0.70 a bushel for the week. French milling wheat also reached its highest continuation price on Wednesday, near its September 1 high, before slipping €4.00, or just $0.12 a bushel. Eventually, these higher world grain prices will matter to the US market once the heavy harvest selling pressure passes and importers become more aggressive buyers.

Corn ethanol margins remain very strong at $0.45-$0.50 per gallon, and soybean crush margins are also quite profitable. Yesterday’s NOPA crush report disappointed at 193.6 Mil Bu, a 13-month low. But what the report doesn’t tell you is that tight old-crop soybean supplies have been disrupting crush operations. Some plants shut down for fall maintenance, while others were offering basis premiums of more than $1.00 just to keep beans coming in and meet meal commitments. That raises questions about just how much soybean carryout was really left from last year’s crop. But nobody seems interested in holding the USDA accountable.

Since Wednesday, much of the Corn Belt has received rainfall sufficient to temporarily halt fieldwork in many locations. Parts of Iowa picked up as much as 1.25 inches of precipitation, while portions of Nebraska received up to 2 inches. Additional rain across eastern Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana could slow harvest progress through the remainder of the week. While harvest delays are not ideal, the bigger concern may be the strong winds expected to follow. Forecasts call for widespread wind gusts approaching and exceeding 40 mph across Iowa and Nebraska over the next several days. Much of the Eastern Corn Belt is expected to see gusts of at least 30 mph, with localized areas in Illinois potentially reaching 40 mph or higher. Widespread stalk issues are not anticipated, but isolated standability issues may be seen.

It’s obvious that soybeans have broken down on the charts, with first notice day for the November soybean contract now 10 calendar days away. Major support arrives at the continuation breakout value of 1240, a bit over $0.20 away from yesterday’s close. Corn values are struggling to absorb harvest, with the threat of last Friday’s low of 470 being rechallenged in the current weak price atmosphere. US wheat values remain under pressure due to the lack of non-traditional wheat sales developing and advantageous winter wheat development weather.

Cattle Overview

Next Friday’s October Cattle on Feed report is starting to get some attention, with early estimates looking much like last month. Placements are expected to be well below a year ago as Mexican feeder cattle imports remain slow to recover, while the number of cattle on feed is also expected to be lower. That’s keeping the market focused on tight feeder cattle supplies, and buyers are having to pay up to find cattle. You can see it in the Feeder Cattle Index, which gained another $1.22 yesterday to $342.64.

The afternoon boxed beef prices yesterday came in with choice off $2.52 at $373.98, and select dropped $5.85 to $352.62 on movement of 101 loads. 72 were choice, almost 13 select, 9 ground beef, and the balance trim. This may produce a steady to softer opening for live cattle this morning, as boxed beef values were softer than in the forenoon.

Yesterday, bids were offered at 226 in Kansas, and Nebraska had seen bids of $222 that were passed. Cash trade should likely develop at steady money this week, while feedlots still think they can get higher money if they hold out. Thursday slaughter was estimated at 104,000 head, which is 5,000 head less than last week and 13,000 lower than a year ago.

December cattle closed right into resistance yesterday at 227.50-228.00 and may vacillate just underneath those numbers today until cash trade gets established. Quick support is now at 225, with major support at 224.

November feeder cattle stalled again at the 342 resistance, which is now on par with the feeder index. Softening grain prices continue to fuel optimism. November continues to target 344, but the late July high near 348 on the continuation chart is looking more appealing, as chart extensions on this leg higher are always probable since the minimum expectation was so easily achieved. Support has now risen to 337.00-338.00. January feeder cattle are now trading higher daily volume and open interest. They become the spot continuation value next week, which suggests January feeders have a shot at 342.

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