It was a firm grain trade overnight that rallied into the classic for 4:00 a.m. Chicago time peak when the Matif opens, but the vigilante sellers did not got much traction yet. That will likely wait for the wrecking crew that typically shows up at 8:30 a.m.

Soybeans found overnight support as the Brazilian real rallied sharply, which puts upward pressure on Brazilian soybeans. Flávio Bolsonaro, who is the 45-year-old son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, won yesterday’s Brazilian presidential election with 47% of the vote against Lula da Silva. Because neither received more than 50%, Bolsonaro and Lula will go to a runoff on October 25. Reuters reports markets are reacting positively to his more market-oriented economic platform, including fiscal discipline, privatization, and tax cuts.

A solid pop has occurred in the Brazilian currency overnight, and EWZ, a Brazilian ETF, has already rallied roughly 15% from its August lows as betting markets priced in his momentum. A Bolsonaro victory should provide underlying support in the weeks ahead, likely pushing the BRL stronger than 4.80 by year-end as equities draw speculative foreign capital.

Saudi Arabia’s wheat tender has quantities being announced as they are purchasing 683,000 MT, versus 535,000 MT originally sought, an extra 148,000 MT, or about 28% more than tendered. Prices are not yet out, but it’s likely they paid as much as they would have during the September 7 tender that they canceled, but will have increased freight costs.

Not only is Russia running into difficulties with countries restricting grain movement through the Baltics, word is now that Poland and Romania are declining to expand Ukrainian grain transits from prior commitments. Low Danube River levels and Romanian farmers not being able to export their crops because of being overrun by Ukrainian grain are being cited as the cause. “Everybody knows we cannot double the number of trains, we cannot double the roads, railways and port capacity,” is the quote from Romanian Agricultural Minister Tánczos in an interview with Politico. Meanwhile, Ukrainian Ag Minister Vysotskyi said planted winter crop areas will be down 35-40% because of cash-strapped farmers. The world is not pricing in these difficulties for 2027.

Here at home, weather opens up a large swath of the Midwest, giving it a window to harvest. Some areas will need some time for the ground to firm up, but the grain trade has found new interest in ownership ahead of Friday’s October WASDE/crop production report. More yield guesses will be out this week, and they will certainly be lower than last week’s high-water StoneX yield guesses. USDA enumerators will be out this week in field plots. Will they account for the mold and disease pressure is what’s in question.

Corn has absorbed a lot since last Wednesday’s stocks data and current harvest pressure while still hanging near $5.00. Soybeans are also performing well by having only corrected a small percentage from their highs. They have barely lost 5% in their correction from their high made on September 11, which is a very friendly price slide. A first-of-the-month low may have been scored on November beans at 1273 as harvest reveals split pods and mold issues. Wheat is similarly recovering from a nonstop September fallout that had the 78% retracement of the August rally challenged (78% is a significant Fibonacci number) and is now working to recover from last Thursday’s low.

This will be an interesting week as harvest pressure hits the grain trade that price positions with this Friday’s report. A yield drop of 2 BPA on corn and a fractional loss in bean yield will offset the Stocks price loss and put the carryout back at 1.5 Bil Bu for corn and beans potentially just under 300 Mil Bu.