It’s just another day in the neighborhood where overnight grain strength fades after 4:00 a.m. CT, typically led by wheat, as night session rallies are easier to come about than in the daytime during harvest season.

Soybeans had robust overnight recovery from yesterday’s day session selloff, tagging their annual highs for the third time within pennies after yesterday’s debunked rumors were circulated that Pres. Xi fainted during the BRICS summit in India and may have suffered a medical issue. So far, there is no credible confirmation of those claims, and India’s Ministry of External Affairs has pushed back, calling the reports “fake” and “malicious.” Xi reportedly completed the summit schedule and departed India as planned, so for now this remains an unconfirmed social media rumor. Next week’s September 24 summit is still on schedule.

The world wheat market is starting to send a pretty clear message through the cash trade, as futures try to send the opposite message. Algeria just purchased roughly 500,000 to 510,000 metric tons of wheat at $319 to $321 per metric ton, cost and freight, for November shipment. That is nearly $30 per ton more than its August 5 tender, when Algeria bought as much as 720,000 tons at just $289 to $290. In only six weeks, the price has jumped roughly 10%.

Pakistan may be the next confirmation. Its tender for 750,000 metric tons drew bids starting at $348.83 per ton delivered Karachi, with other offers stretching toward $370. The purchase has not been fully awarded yet, but these numbers certainly suggest world buyers needing nearby wheat are being forced to pay considerably more than they were just a few weeks ago. Saudi Arabia may just wish it had kept its September 4 tender, as they will likely be coming back to the marketplace soon.

The grain trade held up well yesterday despite the fully anticipated .25% interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve and the US dollar that now consistently hugs near 100.00. The dollar has been valued for two years near that price, so the dollar strength is already embedded into our grain purchases. The Fed anticipates it will take two years to resolve current inflation. Funny statement coming from an organization that emphatically stated we had “transitory” inflation after Covid and for the two years following.

Crude oil values are lower again this morning, with the October contract, which expires next Tuesday, trading just above $100. The active November contract is down $1.50 near 96.00. What’s interesting is that this morning soybean oil still shows gains of $0.43, with soybean meal up $5.50, as they had not reacted higher into the close compared to soybeans on Wednesday. They are playing catch-up on the tickertape. All said, row crops have temporarily cut the umbilical cord from the tail-wagging-the-dog effect of energy values for the day. Decent export sales numbers are anticipated this morning at 7:30 a.m., along with a flash bean sale, which has been on hiatus this week.