What Could WASDE Trigger?
Presented by Heartland Investor Capital Management Inc. CTA
📊 WASDE Preview
Tomorrow’s report could be the trigger for the next move in grains.
Corn yield expectations average near 178.4 bushels, with every major estimate below last month.
Soybean yield is expected near 52.5 bushels, also slightly below last month.
🌽 Corn
Yield will get the attention tomorrow, but demand and carryout may be more important.
The trade expects new-crop stocks near 1.5 billion bushels, down sharply from last month.
Stronger exports could force USDA to tighten that balance sheet even further.
🌱 Soybeans
Renewed Chinese buying helped bring buyers back into the soybean market today.
USDA may still need to recognize stronger crush and export demand in its balance sheet.
That could pull soybean carryout below current expectations and provide additional price support.
🌾 Wheat
Wheat continues trying to establish a low following its recent correction.
Technical support is holding while Black Sea export disruptions remain an important factor.
Continued problems there could eventually shift more global demand toward U.S. wheat.
📈 Technicals
Corn continues holding support after its correction from the $5.49 area.
Soybeans remain positioned for another push toward the $13.41–$13.50 area.
A friendly WASDE could provide the spark for another leg higher across the grain markets.
🐂 Cattle
Live and feeder cattle continue recovering from the recent washout.
October live cattle could begin meeting resistance around the $219–$221 area.
Feeder cattle are also nearing resistance where this first recovery rally could begin to slow.
👀 Bottom Line
Lower yields would certainly help the grain trade tomorrow.
Demand revisions and tighter ending stocks, however, may prove to be the bigger surprise.
If USDA tightens the balance sheets aggressively enough, WASDE could trigger the next move higher.
Provided by:
Eugene Graner,
Heartland Investor Capitol Management, Inc., CTA
(A separate entity from Heartland Investor Services)
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