Sunday night’s grain trade opened near steady and quickly tumbled as profit-taking hit, with concerns that the large open-interest gains across the grain board for the month of August had spooked some of the twitching tweeters. Despite the quick break, the grain trade still recovered to press new highs for the month and year before another round of mild profit-taking took hold. Wheat took the larger share of the selling, but there is no hint of any truce coming in the Black Sea between Russia and Ukraine.

Speaking of fighting, even the Strait of Hormuz has seen the US make several strikes against Iranian sites that were planning on dispersing more mines into the Strait. Fighting has also escalated in the Black Sea, with Russia now almost shut off from the global market via its deepwater ports. Russia is planning to subsidize rail to increase grain movement through the Baltics. Meanwhile, the Danube River is low from the drought in Europe, complicating Ukraine’s ability to move grain. Half of the Black Sea wheat that would typically be available this fall is shut off.

As you probably heard, Pres. Trump will meet with oil refiners Tuesday, and the impact on SRE announcements from the EPA is unknown. EPA is considering 1.8 billion gallons of exemptions from 2025 compliance under the Trump administration and, under heavy lobbying from US air carriers, adding back 500-800 million gallons to the RVO next year. This boosted soybean oil and RIN prices sharply on Friday on expectations that Pres. Trump is willing to redeploy SRE volumes, as it could help lower diesel fuel prices ahead of the US midterm elections.

It’s First Notice Day today for September futures, and few surprises were noted on deliveries. This week we will start getting estimates from various analysts, with everyone very curious about how StoneX will respond to new yield perceptions, given they are always known for the high-water mark in yield guesses. Today’s crop ratings are expected to show another decline in both corn and soybeans of about 1-2% in the GD/EX category, with reports that SDS is taking its toll on soybeans and stalk disease is causing premature death in corn.

It is the last trading day of the month, and overnight volatility picked up in the early morning hours, with thin trade allowing wheat to drop as much as $0.27 before a mild recovery. Meanwhile, end-user buyers will be hoping and praying that weak-kneed traders offer up a sale and create buying opportunities. Corn continues to show the most stamina in its ability to climb with only mild corrections. Index fund buying will likely reach new records while the twitching tweeters express concern.

Inflation is coming to grains, and there is concern that a Super El Niño will affect South America’s ability to restock grain shelves, which have seen a 100 MMT reduction in corn and wheat supplies in just under three months.

Volatility at the end of the month and the start of a new month always brings about trade jitters as positions move. This type of volatility could create a high-water mark for a few days, but setbacks will draw renewed interest, with the September 11 WASDE/Crop Production report as the next big target and trends toward lower carryouts remaining the dominant theme. Yield loss or improving demand will create this, and it’s just a matter of how we get there.