The Black Sea is Still Volatile
Presented by Heartland Investor Capital Management Inc. CTA
🌽 Corn
Corn gave back part of Wednesday’s strong USDA-driven rally.
Brazil’s CONAB raised production by 1.2 MMT, pressuring prices.
The added Brazilian supply was largely directed toward rebuilding ending stocks.
Corn continues holding near its 50% retracement with 467’4 viewed as possible support.
The longer-term chart outlook still points toward another challenge of 492–495.
🫘 Soybeans
Soybeans continue quietly building strength around key technical support.
Prices have held near the 62% retracement and largely above the 100-day moving average.
Potential Chinese buying remains a bullish wildcard heading into September.
Dry conditions ahead of Brazil’s planting season could also become increasingly important.
The chart structure continues to suggest the possibility of a stronger third-wave rally.
🌾 Wheat
Wheat pushed to new August highs before dropping roughly 20 cents in minutes.
Headlines surrounding potential Russia-Ukraine negotiations triggered the sudden break.
Black Sea export infrastructure remains the bigger concern for the market.
Additional Russian loading capacity was described as suspended or offline.
Despite the volatility, wheat held technical support and the outlook remains for strength into late August.
🐂 Live Cattle
Live cattle reached the projected 219 downside target before bouncing into the close.
That level now becomes important support for the developing ABC correction.
Holding 219 leaves room for a recovery toward the 230–235 area.
A sustained break below support would materially weaken the recovery outlook.
The broader view remains that the mature cattle bull market is transitioning toward a bearish phase.
🐄 Feeder Cattle
Feeders quickly broke through support and reached the projected 334 area.
Prices recovered into the close, leaving the possibility of a corrective bounce.
September could recover toward the upper 340s if follow-through buying develops.
Deferred contracts continue carrying sizable discounts into winter.
The longer-term outlook remains increasingly bearish despite potential near-term recovery.
Provided by:
Eugene Graner,
Heartland Investor Capitol Management, Inc., CTA
(A separate entity from Heartland Investor Services)
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