Connecting the Dots
Presented by Heartland Investor Capital Management Inc. CTA
🌾 Wheat
Black Sea export disruptions remain the primary concern.
Russia and Ukraine account for roughly 61 MMT of exportable wheat.
Even a short disruption could force importers toward alternative suppliers.
Chicago wheat posted its second-highest continuation close of the year.
Kansas City wheat reached its highest continuation close of the year.
The charts point toward $8 Kansas City wheat, with further upside possible.
🌽 Corn
December corn held its Sunday-night gap and reversed higher Tuesday.
The continuation chart produced an outside day higher.
USDA demand projections may be understating future export opportunities.
Matching old-crop exports could reduce new-crop carryout near 1.4 billion bushels.
A yield closer to 180 BPA could tighten carryout toward 1.3 billion.
Prevented planting adjustments could push December corn toward $4.90 to $5.
🌱 Soybeans
Soybeans remain near their new contract highs.
The pullback has been shallow despite seasonal selling pressure.
Crop ratings could weaken as heat and dryness expand.
A 53-bushel national yield remains difficult to assume this early.
Brazilian fertilizer availability and northern Brazil dryness add longer-term risk.
The market remains technically and fundamentally supported.
🐂 Live Cattle
Live cattle bounced after testing the 50% retracement Monday.
Initial resistance sits near the 225.80 to 226 area.
A larger recovery could eventually target 238 to 239.
Friday’s Cattle on Feed report remains the next major fundamental test.
Early expectations show higher inventories but lower placements and marketings.
Weekly closes will determine whether the technical structure remains intact.
🐄 Feeder Cattle
Feeder cattle turned sharply higher from trendline support.
August futures moved back above nearby moving-average support.
The first upside hurdle is near 348.
A breakout could extend the recovery toward 353.
The 20-day moving average remains the larger trend-defining resistance level.
Failure below that area would keep the broader topping risk alive.
Provided by:
Eugene Graner,
Heartland Investor Capitol Management, Inc., CTA
(A separate entity from Heartland Investor Services)
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable to Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK of LOSS involved in trading futures and / or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. The information contained in this newsletter is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this message or any attachment is strictly prohibited. Provided by Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. a registered CTA with the NFA, of which Eugene Graner is principal. This entity is a separate legal entity from the Introducing Broker Heartland Investor Services.