Post WASDE Fallout
Presented by Heartland Investor Capital Management Inc. CTA
Grains:
WASDE largely a non-event for grains
Most adjustments already priced in pre-report
Wheat the only mildly friendly component
Corn and beans both traded defensive into release
Positioning and flow dominated price action
No major USDA surprise factor today
Corn:
July futures printed marginal new low
Export demand remains the key support driver (~1 MMT pace)
No real slowdown in demand yet despite price weakness
USDA carryout still vulnerable if exports continue
Key support near $4.10 continuation level
December corn holding $4.39–$4.40 structural zone
Soybeans:
Now clearly in Wave 2 corrective phase
Brief break below 100-day but closed back above it
Momentum shifting but trend not broken yet
Downside retracement risk into $10.20–$10.70 zone
November beans defending 1130–1134 support
Market still digesting prior rally into May highs
Wheat:
HRW production trimmed again (Kansas/Montana)
Net ~16M bu reduction in U.S. wheat carryout
Move mildly friendly but largely expected
KC wheat still outperforming Chicago
Prior rally already priced much of this in
SRW starting to price in scab risk concerns
Crude Oil:
Headline-driven on U.S.–Iran rhetoric shifts
Rallied into low $90s then rejected quickly
Back into upper $80s range trading
Descending triangle structure still intact
$85 key trigger level for downside acceleration
Break below opens mid-$60s longer-term risk
Cattle:
Market stabilizing after last week’s shock
Live cattle resistance near $251 area
Feeder cattle reclaiming 20-day moving average
Technical tone improving short-term
If held, upside into low $370s possible
$383 remains broader cycle high resistance
Market Outlook:
Focus shifts to June 30 acreage report
Corn driven by exports vs acreage uncertainty
Beans working through corrective phase
Wheat balancing HRW strength vs macro pressure
Crude still headline-driven with no trend break
Cattle remain strongest structural chart in complex
Provided by:
Eugene Graner,
Heartland Investor Capitol Management, Inc., CTA
(A separate entity from Heartland Investor Services)
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable to Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK of LOSS involved in trading futures and / or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. The information contained in this newsletter is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this message or any attachment is strictly prohibited. Provided by Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. a registered CTA with the NFA, of which Eugene Graner is principal. This entity is a separate legal entity from the Introducing Broker Heartland Investor Services.