Grain trade disappointed with the lack of agricultural-specific sales to China.

The overnight grain trade saw a light bounce initially in anticipation of an agricultural package with China, but without an official number or specifics, the market softened again this morning, with losses across the board. Pres. Trump says China will buy lots of soybeans, billions of soybeans, but without specific numbers, and the ambiguity in the statement, the grain trade continues to see big liquidation from large spec open interest. The current flush is seeking new business.

At 11: a.m. today, we will receive the April NOPA, and we will likely see another record crush, along with a drawdown in oil stocks. The overnight price rally of the new spot contract July, is near 100, up $3 died 00 barrel, yet it is having no effect on the bean trade other than creating a stable soybean oil price. The biggest problem with the grain trade today is the near-record open interest in fund participation, and a liquidation phase will run its course until a bid for a rebound in prices is found.

The Wheat Quality Council tour through Kansas pegged production at 218 Mil Bu. This is very close to what the NAS S put out for their initial forecast. The current flush in wheat prices since Wednesday morning is due to rumors of wheat imports again to help address shortages. Three weeks ago, wheat from Poland was imported into Florida.

El Niño is reportedly strengthening, and that means it will affect South American crops this fall. Is a drop potentially building again in production for Brazil or Argentina, which would create demand for US stocks this fall? Meanwhile, export sales are seasonally falling off, and with corn at just over 600,000 MT, that is taking the air out of corn prices.

Live and feeder cattle prices surged on Thursday’s opening after gapping higher, but then a late-day technical selloff triggered sell stops and panic selling when that gap was plugged, with prices closing at the low of the session. If it were just a technical tip-over, a resurgence in pricing should occur today. On the other hand, if the technical fallout was real, August feeder cattle are in trouble with a Friday close under 363.

Yesterday’s cash feeder index was off $0.63 at $373.23. Negotiated fed cattle remained active in the South, with cleanup sales at record prices, while cleanup sales in the North had dressed trade at $415. Boxed beef values had choice down $1.23 at $ 3.45, while the gain and select were $0.42, putting them at $389. Memorial Day weekend procurement likely peaked this week, with cash trade next week questionable they can sustain this week’s values. If this week created a high watermark for cash sales, June cattle futures are carrying a sizable decline from the spring high of $13 compared to a normal $6-8.