For the 5th week in a row, grains and energies open higher Sunday night and falter into the Monday morning session.

Futures were initially called slightly higher ahead of Sunday’s open, but that early optimism didn’t hold, as for the fifth week in a row,energies in grains turned lower after the initial higher start. Wheat started the session unchanged and quickly slipped lower, declining in the evening nearly 10 cents in short order. This quickly put selling pressure on corn and soybeans in the early evening hours. The tone feels cautious, even as outside markets try to lend support. Crude oil, for example, pushed another $2.50 higher to $114.25 before easing back, a pattern that reflects broader uncertainty rather than conviction.

Weekend weather developments are leaning on grain prices, with rainfall sweeping across portions of the Plains that had been among the driest in the country. That said, the broader moisture picture hasn’t improved nearly enough. The drought footprint tied to the U.S. winter wheat crop remains roughly double last year’s level, underscoring how much additional precipitation will be needed to stabilize conditions. The forecasts suggest that the drought area in the HRW wheat belt will begin to shrink over the next 10 days, but moisture will still focus on the eastern two-thirds of Kansas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma.

What is starting to stand out is the disconnect between fund activity and end-user behavior. Roughly one million contracts have been accumulated across the ag space, yet commercial buyers remain notably relaxed. That imbalance shifts the burden onto the bullish camp to generate follow-through early in the week. Without it, the recent buying spree risks losing momentum.

There is also a growing sense that traders are pricing in a near-term policy or geopolitical breakthrough. Market behavior suggests expectations of some form of resolution from Washington within days, even if that assumption proves premature. Positioning reflects a belief that tensions could ease quickly, which helps explain the lack of urgency from physical buyers.

Attention is now turning toward India’s fertilizer tender, which has expanded well beyond initial expectations. The inquiry now totals 2.5 million metric tons, signaling an aggressive effort to secure supply ahead of anticipated tightness in both natural gas and fertilizer availability. Domestic prices in the U.S. have surged into an $850–$900 delivered range in the Mid-South, a sharp move from roughly $500 levels seen late last year. The key question is which suppliers step forward with the most competitive offers, especially given the larger-than-expected volume on the table.

Meanwhile, positioning data reinforces the market's speculative tilt. The latest Commitment of Traders report shows funds adding 26,000 contracts across the three wheat markets, alongside another 13,000 contracts in soybean oil, pushing that market to a record net-long stance. The buildup underscores how heavily sentiment is leaning in one direction, even as underlying demand signals remain less convincing.

Live and feeder cattle futures on Friday bucked the negative outside market trends, and again put in strong closes to the upside. Last week’s feeder index climbed $3.83 to $3 66.1. Meanwhile, the negotiated fed cattle trade held until late week, with the northern trade up $10 for the week at $245, while dressed sales were $one three higher at $385. Even the live sales in the South were quoted at $245, which was a gain of $8.00. This all occurred while cattle slaughter rose to a 7-week high of 533,000 head. Still, that number was 53,000 head fewer than a year ago. Since the beginning of the year, cumulative slaughter is at 90% and a record low of just over 7 Mil head. Imports and slowing exports have helped fill the gap.

Friday’s powerful outside-day higher close has June cattle targeting 248-250, the prior contract highs, with May feeders taking a look at the gap on the continuation chart at 275-279.